darron

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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41.87		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
122.089	97.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
114.554	97.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
102.142	98.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
98.246	98.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
96.833	98.7%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
94.272	99.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
93.739	98.5%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
92.128	97.9%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
86.688	98.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
74.874	99.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
73.990	100.0%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
73.956	98.4%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.607	98.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
70.845	98.5%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
69.135	99.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
66.659	96.7%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
65.714	97.3%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
64.475	99.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
64.415	99.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
63.931	98.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
63.325	99.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
62.382	77.0%	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
57.988	95.8%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
56.366	99.9%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
55.935	98.4%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
54.069	98.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
53.145	98.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
49.295	99.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
48.110	96.3%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
48.110	98.6%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
44.434	97.6%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
43.611	93.6%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
40.424	74.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
39.995	73.1%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
37.758	96.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
36.776	94.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
36.434	98.4%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
35.839	82.6%	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
34.055	99.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.697	99.9%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
30.211	97.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
29.526	97.7%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
29.194	100.0%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
28.089	95.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
27.761	97.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
27.017	98.0%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.266	94.6%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
25.392	99.1%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.926	91.2%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
22.861	47.8%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.950	97.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
21.814	63.3%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
21.756	55.2%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.199	48.7%	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
20.793	97.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
19.468	87.9%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
18.345	99.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
18.325	97.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
18.054	98.5%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.573	81.3%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
16.936	96.7%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
16.424	84.2%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
15.090	98.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
14.877	70.2%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
14.497	99.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
13.670	95.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
13.320	61.6%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
13.272	92.2%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
12.525	96.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
11.601	55.2%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
11.236	17.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
10.956	34.4%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
10.323	65.0%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
9.650	43.8%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
9.328	15.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.055	12.5%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
7.915	28.6%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
7.664	54.0%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
7.571	19.0%	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.511	69.0%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.453	9.9%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
6.414	65.0%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
6.334	17.1%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
6.186	96.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
5.685	20.2%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
5.229	34.6%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
5.094	86.3%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
4.753	12.1%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
4.499	10.7%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
3.684	70.2%	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
3.530	55.8%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
2.807	56.5%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
2.386	11.5%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.996	36.5%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
1.020	20.5%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
0.392	1.3%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.326	22.6%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.167	4.7%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
-0.801	3.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-6.112	96.0%	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-23.144	45.0%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-25.541	28.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-219.471	93.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary