darron

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.07		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
49.246	99.8%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
41.651	41.9%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
37.869	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
31.146	41.0%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
29.538	100.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
29.033	24.5%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
25.359	47.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
21.102	45.2%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
20.076	64.7%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
19.788	35.4%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
19.357	71.0%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
18.326	91.8%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
17.853	33.0%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
17.333	25.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
16.986	17.0%	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
16.912	33.0%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
16.863	23.5%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
16.677	99.2%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
16.520	99.9%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
16.153	49.0%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
15.773	17.0%	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024)	Continuous
15.351	21.6%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
14.151	33.7%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
13.539	90.2%	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
13.221	53.4%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
12.628	70.7%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
11.760	23.8%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
11.754	76.6%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
11.698	22.8%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
11.541	85.5%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
11.203	33.0%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
10.981	94.2%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
10.974	99.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
10.775	44.2%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
10.694	45.3%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
10.622	12.8%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
10.403	73.5%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
10.315	40.5%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
10.043	99.7%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
9.894	38.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
9.780	63.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
9.679	17.0%	How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
9.267	76.9%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
8.879	47.1%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.320	51.8%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
7.916	35.6%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
7.832	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
7.790	34.9%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.753	46.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
7.750	60.7%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
7.556	34.9%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
7.532	59.1%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
7.289	99.7%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
7.175	58.0%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
6.959	13.5%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
6.635	23.0%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
6.602	71.2%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
6.509	99.8%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
6.382	33.5%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
6.365	99.6%	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
6.313	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
6.289	99.4%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
6.282	41.4%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
6.226	99.8%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
6.213	99.9%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
5.959	33.5%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
5.914	34.9%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
5.903	26.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
5.770	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
5.696	29.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.563	63.0%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
5.557	45.9%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.422	34.9%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
5.340	38.5%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
5.310	35.6%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
5.304	35.3%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
5.269	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
5.069	33.3%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.966	35.3%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
4.804	38.5%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
4.771	18.2%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
4.722	27.8%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
4.692	46.9%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
4.651	5.8%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
4.630	73.4%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
4.630	82.9%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
4.531	17.0%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
4.462	24.1%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.451	31.6%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
4.410	24.5%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.389	98.4%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
4.334	99.8%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
4.309	12.8%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
4.057	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.788	17.0%	What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
3.678	99.7%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
3.658	34.9%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
3.395	31.5%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
3.284	49.9%	How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
3.170	81.2%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
3.017	31.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
3.005	17.0%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
2.959	58.0%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
2.928	33.5%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
2.915	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.911	18.1%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
2.891	31.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
2.672	37.6%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
2.627	61.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.614	27.6%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
2.605	27.3%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
2.568	13.5%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
2.560	49.5%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
2.522	29.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.508	36.3%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.378	17.0%	What will be the estimated fleet average fuel economy (in mpg) imposed by a regulatory agency in the United States for light vehicles manufactured in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
2.373	29.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.347	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
2.345	33.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.310	51.5%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
2.193	42.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.181	76.9%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
2.113	40.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.073	12.8%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
2.054	33.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
2.015	24.0%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.968	90.8%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.952	66.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
1.888	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.865	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.824	76.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.803	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
1.785	9.9%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.707	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.637	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.537	25.2%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
1.470	99.9%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
1.367	66.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.249	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.199	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.185	5.1%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
1.121	29.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.087	41.1%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.085	16.0%	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
1.019	55.8%	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.008	61.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.003	60.1%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
0.897	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.854	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
0.853	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.852	69.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.823	42.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.813	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.804	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
0.761	6.1%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
0.715	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
0.699	45.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.694	21.9%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
0.688	24.5%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.662	1.3%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
0.659	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.640	21.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.620	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.606	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.559	24.6%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.532	21.9%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.504	41.4%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.473	42.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.465	6.6%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
0.414	45.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
0.399	21.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.377	1.2%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.364	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.363	58.7%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
0.362	21.8%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
0.316	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
0.300	57.3%	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
0.299	45.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
0.296	21.8%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
0.258	45.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.211	5.4%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
0.202	2.5%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
0.167	0.5%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
0.152	0.7%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.129	11.8%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
0.105	45.3%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
0.065	0.8%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
-0.034	5.4%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
-0.057	1.5%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
-0.074	5.4%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
-0.086	5.4%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
-0.135	5.4%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
-0.295	29.7%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
-0.329	24.4%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-0.481	1.0%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-0.749	62.6%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
-1.328	21.9%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-1.348	61.1%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-1.469	21.2%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-1.594	97.9%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
-1.823	51.8%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
-3.648	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
-3.918	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
-4.610	76.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
-7.374	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
-7.407	99.9%	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
-7.833	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
-11.234	84.7%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-18.837	39.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-24.046	100.0%	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-31.481	100.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-36.075	43.4%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary