JoePater

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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38.08		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
118.517	96.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
116.497	71.7%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
111.561	62.8%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
108.703	90.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
96.831	84.4%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
95.069	90.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
94.698	90.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
93.930	99.5%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
88.186	87.3%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
83.372	90.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
79.341	94.4%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
75.549	99.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
72.643	87.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
71.084	78.7%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
70.632	78.9%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
70.244	98.7%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
70.018	74.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
69.478	87.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
69.458	77.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
64.903	89.2%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
62.735	99.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
59.982	84.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
59.781	73.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
57.330	77.2%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
52.208	89.6%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
51.355	95.6%	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
50.838	78.0%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
47.952	97.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
47.183	57.1%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
44.563	99.4%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
41.727	65.1%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
38.150	97.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
37.982	98.8%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
36.629	53.3%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
35.784	83.7%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
35.638	85.7%	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
34.498	98.1%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
33.895	86.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
33.607	75.3%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
33.601	98.2%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
33.531	75.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
30.017	65.2%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
29.996	87.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
29.769	97.4%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
29.481	79.5%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.529	99.5%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
28.516	99.8%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
25.865	88.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
25.587	92.8%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
24.926	98.8%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
24.678	77.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
23.747	37.1%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
23.693	98.3%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
23.071	87.2%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
22.616	89.9%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
21.922	75.8%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
21.895	40.9%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
21.484	99.5%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
20.545	87.8%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
18.938	73.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
18.612	99.7%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
17.957	30.9%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
17.345	37.8%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
15.944	85.2%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
15.407	41.3%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
14.605	97.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
13.837	99.4%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
13.666	81.1%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
13.365	90.9%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
13.220	85.7%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
11.816	17.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.717	88.6%	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
11.418	63.8%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
11.002	72.4%	Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?	Binary
9.888	74.3%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
9.654	15.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
9.176	97.0%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
8.351	23.9%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
8.324	27.7%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
8.233	15.2%	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
6.428	17.8%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
4.587	50.5%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.500	72.5%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
2.175	98.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
2.071	99.3%	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
1.912	97.1%	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.901	11.7%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
1.480	12.9%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
0.224	58.9%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
-0.614	74.2%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-0.709	75.0%	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-2.473	68.2%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-9.173	93.4%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-13.947	80.7%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
-14.304	84.7%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
-17.985	71.2%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
-39.601	72.5%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-42.065	67.5%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-50.313	74.3%	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
-92.972	93.7%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-207.697	97.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice