Haiku

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.686		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
84.306	51.0%	How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024?	Continuous
68.273	99.9%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
47.526	99.5%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
31.731	97.3%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
31.150	99.9%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
31.050	41.4%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
28.933	71.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
28.364	23.8%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
27.991	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
26.443	99.4%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
24.931	55.1%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
23.557	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
22.858	99.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
21.905	96.3%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
19.150	67.9%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
18.630	88.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24)	Continuous
17.292	99.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
17.161	99.9%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
16.652	77.4%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
16.615	81.2%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24)	Continuous
15.973	95.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
15.500	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
15.051	99.6%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
14.951	95.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
14.045	87.7%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
13.994	81.0%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
13.810	99.4%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
12.954	97.0%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
12.841	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
12.556	89.7%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
12.037	100.0%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
11.654	99.3%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
11.323	99.9%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.183	24.5%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
10.882	99.7%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
10.806	95.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
10.669	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
10.089	33.0%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
9.892	99.9%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
9.886	63.0%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
9.660	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
9.234	28.5%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
8.971	45.4%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
8.595	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
8.282	27.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
7.744	70.7%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.583	27.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
7.371	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
7.164	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
7.089	95.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
6.682	87.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
6.555	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
6.397	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
6.380	23.1%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
6.369	75.0%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
6.005	20.5%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
5.867	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
5.817	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
5.800	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
5.638	98.0%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
5.269	87.2%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
5.193	81.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
5.109	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
4.921	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
4.644	18.1%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
4.616	75.4%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
4.591	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
4.250	19.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
4.097	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
4.019	70.7%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.003	32.1%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
3.943	27.2%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
3.447	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
3.390	56.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
3.367	63.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.221	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
3.186	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
3.003	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
2.945	21.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
2.753	36.2%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
2.743	66.1%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
2.452	98.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
2.422	21.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
2.407	97.9%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.979	27.9%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.953	98.8%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.931	22.3%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
1.713	35.5%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
1.559	21.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.542	59.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
1.489	8.5%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.462	99.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.455	28.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.446	28.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.370	22.1%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
1.284	36.3%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
1.271	93.8%	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
1.181	99.9%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
1.170	28.0%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
1.152	68.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.096	59.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
0.995	19.1%	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
0.962	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.940	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.914	26.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.757	68.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.738	23.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.676	23.3%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.600	59.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.596	59.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.533	18.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.510	59.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.451	25.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.403	8.5%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.303	68.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.243	21.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.229	3.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
0.197	6.3%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.189	7.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.170	98.8%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
0.119	2.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.117	6.3%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
0.016	3.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.012	2.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.007	0.0%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
-0.221	7.6%	What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?	Continuous
-0.577	100.0%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
-0.682	8.5%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-0.789	6.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
-3.247	33.9%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-4.714	13.7%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024)	Continuous
-6.040	44.7%	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-9.022	61.6%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-9.691	95.8%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-10.958	98.7%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
-16.211	99.7%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
-22.358	21.2%	How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-53.523	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-55.342	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
-57.789	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
-73.578	100.0%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
-81.260	99.1%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary