kk27

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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22.1		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
181.410	100.0%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
152.794	99.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
120.692	99.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
119.418	100.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
106.118	99.6%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
95.368	100.0%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
94.916	100.0%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
87.332	99.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
86.801	99.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
85.056	99.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
81.417	83.1%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
79.113	99.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
76.223	100.0%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
76.115	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
75.126	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
73.785	99.9%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
66.344	100.0%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
65.415	100.0%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
63.171	100.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
62.567	100.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
59.918	100.0%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
59.841	100.0%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
55.678	98.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
55.643	100.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
55.348	99.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
54.632	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
54.516	92.4%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.805	99.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
53.742	86.1%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
53.415	100.0%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
52.323	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
52.313	39.6%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
51.932	94.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
51.626	100.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
50.567	84.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
48.772	99.4%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
48.173	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
48.003	96.3%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
47.960	99.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
47.187	92.6%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
46.945	99.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
45.696	91.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
43.862	100.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
41.620	100.0%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
40.675	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
39.846	99.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
38.856	94.4%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
38.710	96.5%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
38.177	100.0%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
37.552	84.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
36.950	100.0%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.553	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
36.151	96.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
33.662	84.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
33.242	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
32.818	87.8%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
32.559	84.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
32.553	100.0%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
32.271	91.2%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
32.003	96.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
31.843	100.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.674	30.3%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.554	99.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
28.657	91.2%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
27.666	92.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
26.494	89.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
26.465	77.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
25.951	79.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
25.380	87.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
24.921	94.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
24.252	81.2%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
23.956	99.5%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
23.825	84.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
23.638	99.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
23.441	97.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
22.532	67.9%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
22.435	52.5%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
22.288	79.8%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
22.204	94.5%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
21.992	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
21.520	64.1%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
20.279	87.8%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
20.248	92.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
19.896	75.3%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
19.844	80.3%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
19.494	99.6%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
18.967	20.8%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.700	90.6%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
18.578	100.0%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
18.048	94.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
17.773	99.8%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
17.771	90.5%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
17.705	36.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
17.122	87.8%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
16.992	34.8%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
16.011	84.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
15.810	52.6%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
15.473	94.5%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
15.163	100.0%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
15.023	58.9%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
14.302	33.1%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
13.610	93.4%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.496	91.2%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
13.432	33.0%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
12.869	39.8%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
12.659	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
12.479	99.6%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
12.409	74.8%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
12.351	87.8%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
11.934	79.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
11.467	77.3%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
11.443	84.9%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
11.247	76.5%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
11.041	36.7%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
10.400	33.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
10.263	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
10.014	20.0%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
9.522	73.2%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
9.105	20.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
8.967	44.0%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
8.824	29.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
7.752	20.0%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
7.529	17.2%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
7.354	39.6%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
7.186	14.7%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
7.033	37.0%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
5.896	80.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
5.831	29.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
5.209	33.1%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
4.352	33.7%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
4.264	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
3.874	20.0%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
3.798	20.0%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
3.441	20.0%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
3.072	84.1%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
2.425	99.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
2.179	13.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
1.854	13.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
1.657	13.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
1.578	20.0%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
0.888	13.1%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
0.668	13.1%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
0.181	96.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
0.148	0.8%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-2.236	13.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-2.694	92.9%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
-3.544	20.0%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-4.554	87.8%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-5.426	7.5%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-6.232	29.8%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-7.263	22.0%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-7.889	9.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-8.219	29.8%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-10.984	87.0%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-11.564	79.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
-12.563	96.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-14.240	92.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
-15.665	88.2%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-18.981	29.8%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-19.240	91.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-23.891	87.8%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-26.749	13.1%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-28.011	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
-31.984	94.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-42.315	25.4%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-44.254	84.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-44.345	77.8%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-50.955	68.7%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-56.001	87.8%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-59.568	92.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-94.459	99.9%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-127.994	94.6%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-191.568	41.8%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-245.798	98.8%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-397.743	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-468.548	99.9%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary