AncientBlue

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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27.08		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
99.026	96.8%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
91.267	99.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
87.892	96.8%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
79.918	62.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
79.376	93.8%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
71.958	86.5%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
59.707	75.2%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
59.396	98.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
57.905	73.0%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.708	79.7%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
56.032	93.4%	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
55.974	97.6%	Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?	Binary
55.403	91.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
51.843	42.7%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
51.041	93.4%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
50.193	92.3%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
49.827	95.1%	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
49.388	99.4%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
47.107	75.9%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
45.729	89.8%	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
45.590	35.3%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
44.666	99.8%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
43.982	59.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
42.181	99.9%	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
41.469	91.5%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
39.951	94.9%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
39.695	97.1%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
38.303	91.2%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
38.006	86.1%	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
37.363	87.4%	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
36.967	65.2%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
35.524	93.5%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
35.246	94.2%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
33.691	99.6%	Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?	Binary
32.749	94.3%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
32.347	89.4%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
31.830	62.6%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
29.908	95.2%	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
29.841	78.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
29.767	87.5%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
28.571	94.4%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
28.266	93.5%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
27.180	94.4%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
27.018	37.9%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
26.688	44.3%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
26.162	78.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
25.358	99.7%	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
24.870	93.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.841	63.3%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
23.508	94.2%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
22.627	53.6%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
22.558	91.8%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
22.036	42.7%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
21.960	99.2%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
21.458	94.5%	Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?	Binary
20.775	92.9%	Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.988	91.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
19.598	85.2%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
18.981	37.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
18.876	91.7%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
18.861	96.6%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
18.797	94.4%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
17.521	13.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
17.352	98.9%	Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?	Binary
15.685	93.7%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
15.144	90.3%	Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?	Binary
15.058	99.6%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.678	24.7%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
13.963	48.5%	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
13.933	95.4%	What percent of Americans will hold a favorable view of China per the Pew Research Center's 2025 annual poll?	Continuous
12.990	91.8%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
12.557	98.4%	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
12.393	94.8%	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
11.561	25.3%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.472	75.3%	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
11.178	62.2%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
10.331	76.3%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
10.040	91.4%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
9.223	96.3%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
8.463	15.7%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.428	99.4%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
8.371	76.8%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
8.314	82.5%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
8.309	63.2%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
7.784	14.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.601	91.4%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
7.594	93.5%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
7.064	30.1%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
6.957	91.4%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
6.950	97.7%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
6.842	37.6%	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
6.639	99.5%	Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?	Binary
6.470	57.7%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
5.665	99.6%	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
5.245	17.3%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
4.852	22.5%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
3.525	28.1%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
2.943	13.2%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
2.853	11.1%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
2.829	94.4%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
2.679	74.9%	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
2.592	94.3%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
2.332	5.6%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
2.225	6.0%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.138	63.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
2.134	95.5%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
2.128	4.2%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
2.032	11.0%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
1.718	16.1%	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
1.634	5.0%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
1.463	65.8%	Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?	Binary
1.448	91.4%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
1.296	3.6%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.949	2.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
0.781	9.7%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.395	2.3%	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
0.234	0.5%	Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?	Binary
0.132	73.5%	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
0.041	1.5%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-	99.6%	Will the SAF maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?	Binary
-0.183	98.2%	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-1.118	72.0%	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
-1.119	92.2%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-1.291	7.6%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-1.482	98.1%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
-3.206	48.6%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-5.495	86.8%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
-9.815	55.3%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
-10.222	36.9%	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
-11.014	67.1%	Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?	Continuous
-12.640	75.6%	Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?	Multiple Choice
-14.909	23.9%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-29.330	40.4%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-33.239	61.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
-105.116	91.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-131.718	85.3%	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary