206.449 | 89.1% | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025? | Continuous |
195.533 | 85.5% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
92.257 | 60.2% | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025? | Continuous |
91.500 | 92.6% | What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament? | Multiple Choice |
90.143 | 87.9% | What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025? | Continuous |
87.716 | 61.3% | What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025? | Continuous |
87.016 | 91.9% | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
68.116 | 84.5% | What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter? | Continuous |
66.869 | 70.7% | Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025? | Binary |
65.820 | 80.8% | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? | Binary |
63.350 | 92.0% | What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
62.266 | 80.8% | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD) | Continuous |
61.538 | 64.6% | How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025? | Continuous |
53.337 | 48.0% | How many parties will be in the next German parliament? | Multiple Choice |
53.238 | 74.4% | Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place? | Binary |
49.149 | 78.0% | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights) | Continuous |
49.083 | 41.7% | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
48.797 | 60.2% | What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025? | Continuous |
48.753 | 64.9% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
44.264 | 96.2% | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
39.038 | 81.7% | Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
37.425 | 89.9% | What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units? | Continuous |
36.017 | 75.7% | Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025? | Binary |
35.043 | 92.2% | How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week? | Multiple Choice |
32.655 | 70.3% | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
31.519 | 81.3% | What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
31.345 | 40.7% | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
30.987 | 42.9% | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
30.979 | 66.3% | What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025? | Continuous |
28.099 | 93.3% | Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
26.795 | 90.7% | What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
24.792 | 81.9% | Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025? | Binary |
24.599 | 88.9% | Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025? | Binary |
23.959 | 80.8% | On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN) | Continuous |
16.385 | 69.8% | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
14.610 | 42.9% | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey) | Continuous |
12.243 | 19.6% | How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
10.858 | 93.6% | What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025? | Continuous |
9.183 | 74.7% | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
9.102 | 35.4% | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
8.593 | 55.4% | What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)? | Continuous |
8.507 | 18.5% | What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025? | Continuous |
8.107 | 30.0% | How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
8.107 | 98.1% | Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025? | Binary |
5.925 | 52.1% | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
5.631 | 10.4% | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
5.521 | 70.1% | Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada? | Multiple Choice |
5.066 | 14.7% | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
4.710 | 61.5% | Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025? | Binary |
3.887 | 8.6% | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
3.822 | 77.7% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025) | Continuous |
3.304 | 2.8% | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
2.597 | 95.0% | Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion? | Binary |
1.506 | 82.4% | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
1.223 | 83.3% | Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025? | Binary |
0.840 | 2.6% | Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? | Binary |
0.586 | 5.0% | How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World) | Continuous |
0.012 | 0.0% | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)) | Binary |
-2.787 | 8.3% | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
-5.450 | 14.0% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
-9.730 | 30.0% | Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025? | Binary |
-10.613 | 26.5% | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
-10.800 | 60.8% | Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025? | Binary |
-12.319 | 89.9% | What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025? | Continuous |
-13.782 | 83.6% | Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025? | Binary |
-15.049 | 89.0% | Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? | Binary |
-17.236 | 85.3% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025) | Continuous |
-17.672 | 97.5% | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
-19.327 | 97.9% | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
-19.696 | 84.1% | Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from? | Multiple Choice |
-23.801 | 92.1% | How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025? | Continuous |
-25.186 | 74.5% | What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025? | Continuous |
-25.955 | 37.3% | Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025? | Binary |
-27.421 | 89.0% | What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025) | Continuous |
-28.046 | 15.8% | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
-28.743 | 54.1% | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-33.538 | 94.6% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-40.831 | 88.2% | By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup? | Multiple Choice |
-44.308 | 92.5% | How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-51.681 | 94.9% | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
-54.196 | 76.1% | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |
-55.364 | 52.4% | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
-66.802 | 87.7% | What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025? | Continuous |
-69.485 | 65.0% | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
-76.270 | 83.7% | Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%? | Binary |
-107.658 | 92.9% | What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025? | Continuous |
-109.069 | 68.3% | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
-124.422 | 93.3% | What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025? | Continuous |
-127.546 | 90.2% | What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025? | Continuous |
-157.513 | 92.6% | How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025? | Multiple Choice |