AlexK864

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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36.51		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
159.820	99.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
158.447	97.6%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
153.983	99.7%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
150.057	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
132.029	99.2%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
127.955	99.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
127.196	94.2%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
116.829	99.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
114.032	99.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
106.925	100.0%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
106.799	99.7%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
104.051	100.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
101.519	99.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
96.941	99.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
93.006	99.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
91.491	99.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
85.380	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
79.810	99.9%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
78.320	99.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
75.409	99.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
74.506	79.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
72.596	99.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
71.377	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
70.721	100.0%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
70.709	99.8%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
68.533	99.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
68.373	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
63.210	98.8%	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
62.073	99.9%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
62.067	99.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
60.394	99.2%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
60.154	100.0%	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
57.341	99.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.336	99.2%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
56.786	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
55.658	99.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
51.304	100.0%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
51.246	98.3%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
50.717	99.9%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
49.261	98.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
48.828	77.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
48.662	99.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
46.929	99.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
46.273	100.0%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
45.661	96.0%	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
45.340	99.7%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.798	98.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
43.963	100.0%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
43.851	100.0%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
41.425	91.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
37.959	100.0%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
37.311	99.6%	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
34.708	99.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
34.550	99.9%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
34.059	100.0%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
33.085	99.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
32.165	98.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
31.714	99.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
31.469	99.9%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
30.926	84.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
29.408	98.8%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
29.405	99.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
28.924	100.0%	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
28.578	91.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
28.523	99.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
28.484	99.6%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
28.221	100.0%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
28.018	91.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
27.962	99.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
27.581	98.8%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
27.084	99.7%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
26.953	91.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
26.773	99.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
26.721	91.7%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
26.503	99.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
26.303	99.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
26.195	98.6%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
25.746	98.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
25.619	99.8%	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
25.544	98.5%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
25.210	93.1%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
23.450	99.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
23.115	57.1%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
22.630	100.0%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
22.182	99.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
21.612	99.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
21.554	98.6%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
21.333	99.8%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
21.282	79.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.208	99.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
20.996	98.8%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
20.516	91.1%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
20.131	100.0%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
19.533	100.0%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
19.332	84.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
19.192	98.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
18.913	96.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
18.446	99.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
18.143	100.0%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
17.472	90.8%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
17.279	84.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
17.238	98.7%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
16.681	96.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
16.513	100.0%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
16.169	100.0%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.657	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
15.522	100.0%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
15.247	79.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
15.184	59.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
14.968	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
14.451	99.8%	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.446	95.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
14.427	98.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
14.366	96.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
13.544	99.2%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
13.044	100.0%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
12.962	99.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
12.690	78.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
11.814	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.601	100.0%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
10.779	79.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
10.142	84.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
9.322	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.462	96.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
7.887	21.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
7.603	100.0%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
7.327	99.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
7.088	76.7%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
6.986	79.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
6.352	99.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
6.043	84.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
5.748	100.0%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
5.735	99.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
4.961	99.3%	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
4.835	99.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
4.690	100.0%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
4.583	100.0%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
3.599	36.6%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
3.485	100.0%	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
3.297	100.0%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
1.557	98.9%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
1.555	100.0%	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
1.171	0.6%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
0.588	99.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-1.810	6.8%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-2.558	99.8%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-3.979	100.0%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
-5.810	98.5%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
-6.395	99.9%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
-6.676	99.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-8.003	99.6%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
-13.015	78.2%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-16.618	100.0%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-21.042	100.0%	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
-21.053	100.0%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-31.885	98.3%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
-33.450	100.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-67.712	99.9%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
-145.865	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary