Metaculus News

Programs

Respiratory Outlook June Update: New World Screwworm Enters the US

Jun 18, 2026•by gracemclain• no comments•2 min read

Programs

The Next Spot Scoring Date for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index is July 15

Jun 18, 2026•by urgentfutures• no comments•1 min read

Programs

Which Jobs will Survive AI? See Our New Occupation Forecast Pages

Jun 18, 2026•by urgentfutures•2 comments•3 min read

Programs

Key Findings from Frontiers in Disease Prevention with Coefficient Giving

Jun 11, 2026•by urgentfutures•1 comment•2 min read

Programs

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

Jun 11, 2026•by urgentfutures•3 comments•2 min read

Platform

The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

Jun 4, 2026•by urgentfutures• no comments•2 min read

Programs

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

Jun 4, 2026•by urgentfutures•9 comments•2 min read

Programs

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

May 26, 2026•by urgentfutures•4 comments•1 min read

Programs

Can you forecast the future of science?

May 15, 2026•by urgentfutures• no comments•4 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again

May 15, 2026•by gracemclain• no comments•1 min read

Programs

Announcing the Winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge!

May 14, 2026•by urgentfutures•5 comments•3 min read

Platform

Key Factors: Distilled Reasoning

May 8, 2026•by urgentfutures•2 comments•4 min read

Programs

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026 With Dylan Matthews!

May 1, 2026•by christian•33 comments•2 min read

Research

Announcing Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament

May 1, 2026•by BenWilson• no comments•6 min read

Research

Fall 2025 FutureEval Bot-Maker Survey: What Winners Did Differently

May 1, 2026•by gracemclain• no comments•9 min read

Research

Advice from Bot Makers to Bot Makers (Fall 2025)

May 1, 2026•by BenWilson• no comments•13 min read

Programs

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

Apr 29, 2026•by exmateriae• no comments•1 min read

Research

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub

Apr 20, 2026•by urgentfutures•1 comment•2 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity

Apr 17, 2026•by gracemclain• no comments•1 min read

Programs

How Will AI Change Work? Forecast the Future of Labor Automation — $35,000 in Prizes

Apr 6, 2026•by christian•17 comments•2 min read

Programs

Announcing: Frontiers in Disease Prevention

Mar 18, 2026•by urgentfutures• no comments•1 min read

Programs

Announcing the 2026 Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Winners!

Mar 17, 2026•by urgentfutures•48 comments•2 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook March Update: Measles Expected to Surge This Year as Respiratory Season Winds Down

Mar 16, 2026•by gracemclain• no comments•1 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook February Update: Measles Expected to Climb to 30-Year Peak

Feb 27, 2026•by RyanBeck• no comments•2 min read

Platform

Map the Future Before You Build It

Feb 24, 2026•by deger•2 comments•3 min read

Programs

Announcing: Forecasting the Upstart Macro Index - $10,000 Prize Pool

Feb 18, 2026•by skmmcj•11 comments•1 min read

Research

Metaculus Launches FutureEval to Measure the Forecasting Accuracy of AI

Feb 18, 2026•by christian• no comments•6 min read

Research

Introducing FutureEval, our new home for AI forecasting

Feb 12, 2026•by deger•11 comments•5 min read

Programs

Announcing: AI Outlook With JetBrains, $3,000 Prize Pool

Feb 10, 2026•by christian•3 comments•1 min read

Research

The FutureEval model leaderboard

Feb 10, 2026•by Sylvain•10 comments•9 min read

Platform

Announcing the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup - $5000 prize pool

Feb 5, 2026•by sandman•13 comments•2 min read

Programs

Announcing the ACX 2025 Contest Winners!

Feb 2, 2026•by skmmcj•2 comments•2 min read

Programs

Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026 winners to be announced soon!

Jan 12, 2026•by RyanBeck•15 comments•3 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook January Update: Imminent Peak and Rising Measles

Jan 8, 2026•by RyanBeck• no comments•2 min read

Platform

Better bot account management

Jan 8, 2026•by Sylvain•1 comment•1 min read

Research

Forecasting for Scientific & Technological Exploration

Jan 7, 2026•by anand.muthusamy• no comments•29 min read

Programs

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 ft. Nathan Young!

Jan 7, 2026•by skmmcj•38 comments•1 min read

Programs

The ACX 2026 Prediction Contest Is Live, $10,000 Prize Pool

Dec 19, 2025•by christian•51 comments•2 min read

Programs

Market Pulse 26Q1 Opening Bell: Building Consistent Signal

Dec 18, 2025•by RyanBeck•21 comments•1 min read

Research

Announcing Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark

Dec 17, 2025•by BenWilson• no comments•6 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook December Update: Latest on Measles and Peak Respiratory Disease Burden

Dec 15, 2025•by RyanBeck• no comments•2 min read

Platform

Goodbye private comments, hello private notes

Dec 12, 2025•by Sylvain•3 comments•1 min read

Programs

AI Pathways Commenting Prize Winners

Dec 11, 2025•by skmmcj•3 comments•2 min read

Programs

Announcing the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest: January 12, $30k Prize Pool, Recruiting Opportunities

Dec 8, 2025•by christian•1 comment•2 min read

Programs

Registration Is Now Open for Bridgewater Associates' and Metaculus’s Third Annual Global Forecasting Contest

Dec 8, 2025•by christian•1 comment•3 min read

Platform

Improved: prettier score displays and more performance metrics

Dec 3, 2025•by Sylvain•27 comments•1 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook November Update: Latest on Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles

Nov 25, 2025•by RyanBeck• no comments•2 min read

Programs

Winners of the Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Nov 24, 2025•by skmmcj•2 comments•2 min read

Research

Q2 AI Benchmark Results: Pros Maintain Clear Lead

Oct 26, 2025•by BenWilson•6 comments•33 min read

Programs

Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season

Oct 24, 2025•by RyanBeck• no comments•2 min read

Programs

🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

Oct 17, 2025•by christian• no comments•2 min read

Platform

We're Hiring: Product, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

Oct 17, 2025•by christian•1 comment•1 min read

Programs

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

Oct 16, 2025•by felipesol•2 comments•2 min read

Programs

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

Oct 1, 2025•by christian•19 comments•1 min read

Programs

Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

Sep 16, 2025•by RyanBeck•3 comments•2 min read

Research

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Sep 11, 2025•by christian•20 comments•3 min read

Programs

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Sep 1, 2025•by christian• no comments•1 min read

Platform

Introducing Comments of the Week

Aug 20, 2025•by sandman•18 comments•1 min read

Programs

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

Aug 19, 2025•by RyanBeck•9 comments•2 min read

Research

Warmup MiniBench Is Live!

Aug 19, 2025•by christian• no comments•1 min read

Platform

Experimental Feature: Question Links

Aug 8, 2025•by sandman•9 comments•1 min read

Programs

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

Jul 22, 2025•by BenWilson• no comments•3 min read

Research

Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

Jul 14, 2025•by RyanBeck•6 comments•1 min read

Programs

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

Jul 2, 2025•by skmmcj• no comments•1 min read

Programs

📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

Jul 2, 2025•by skmmcj•7 comments•2 min read

Research

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

Jun 21, 2025•by BenWilson•3 comments•31 min read

Platform

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

Jun 18, 2025•by sandman•70 comments•4 min read

Research

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

Jun 9, 2025•by BenWilson•2 comments•10 min read

Platform

Metaculus and Markets: What’s the Difference?

Jun 4, 2025•by RyanBeck• no comments•7 min read

Programs

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025!

May 2, 2025•by skmmcj•28 comments•2 min read

Programs

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Is Live! New Tools & Multi-Bot Creation

Apr 16, 2025•by christian• no comments•2 min read

Programs

Fiscal Showdown 2025 Is Live — $5,000 Prize Pool

Apr 10, 2025•by christian•2 comments•2 min read