• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?

resultYes

When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?

>Jan 2050

How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?

result81.137k

How many communist states will there be in 2050?

4.83
states

Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?

result-28

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes
Niger67%
Haiti62%
and 52 others

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria81%
Haiti70%
Mali61%
and 70 others

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

3%chance