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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan by December 2024?

Annulled

What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?

Ambiguous

When will fossil fuels make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption?

Jun 2040

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

5.7
paths

What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?

44.2%

What percent of China-based threat actors' reported targets will be critical infrastructure entities in 2022?

Ambiguous

Will the US federal government pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens?

30%chance

What will be the average preparation time (in days) of environmental impact statements completed in 2025?

1535
days