By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?18.9% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters18.9%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?21% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters21%chance
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?77.7 deaths per 100k (45.8 - 103)40 comments1414 forecasters77.7 deaths per 100k (45.8 - 103)
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?61.7% chance344 comments2121 forecasters61.7%chance
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? (obsolete version)10.4k (3006 - 52.1k)111919 comments3535 forecasters10.4k (3006 - 52.1k)
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?result: no966 comments5252 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?result: no1211 comment8181 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?result: no455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?result: no131616 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?result: no911 comment7676 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?result: no322 comments6666 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?result: no333 comments6464 forecastersResolvedNo