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What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

4 comments

21 forecasters

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

61.8%chance

0 comments

15 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

Current estimate

69 deaths per 100k

20 comments

160 forecasters

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

25%chance

5 comments

155 forecasters

Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?

resultNo

4 comments

42 forecasters

How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

community

8967

result

Ambiguous

2 comments

4 forecasters

When will these diseases be eradicated according to the WHO?

4 comments

131 forecasters

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

resultNo