Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments203203 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?1% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?result: yes51717 comments763763 forecastersResolvedYes
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2525 forecasters5%chance
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?03 Aug 2021 (16 Jun 2021 - 28 Sep 2021)101212 comments5050 forecasters03 Aug 2021 (16 Jun 2021 - 28 Sep 2021)
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?20% chance122 comments2121 forecasters20%chance
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?104 (55.7 - 446)1133 comments1515 forecasters104 (55.7 - 446)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Before 2032, will these pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?1344 comments9191 forecasters
Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before April 1, 2025?result: no7474 comments1818 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before April 1, 2025?result: no1515 comments99 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?result: no233 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?13% chance5252 comments2929 forecastersAmbiguous