Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC411 comment
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?10% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters10%chance
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?result: no35959 comments221221 forecastersResolvedNo
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?result: no58113113 comments589589 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments105105 forecasters0.1%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2323 forecasters5%chance
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?result: no288 comments3030 forecastersResolvedNo
Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?result: no94949 comments7676 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?result: yes688 comments2121 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?result: no2977 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?result: no241010 comments100100 forecastersResolvedNo
Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?6% chance137370370 comments881881 forecastersAmbiguous
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?result: no455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?result: no322 comments6666 forecastersResolvedNo