Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35151 comments202202 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?1% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will WHO Disease Outbreak News publish a new mpox-related item before May 1, 2026?result: no108108 comments109109 forecastersResolvedNo
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2525 forecasters5%chance
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?104 (55.7 - 446)1133 comments1515 forecasters104 (55.7 - 446)
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?13% chance5252 comments2929 forecastersAmbiguous
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?result: no233 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?53% chance1322 comments9696 forecasters53%chance
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance