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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10
comments
9
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
7%
7%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
13
comments
19
forecasters
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
00
10
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
RSV
3.5
Flu
9.81
COVID-19
3.82
1 other
24
comments
22
forecasters
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?
00
52
comments
44
forecasters
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
community
1.32
result
Annulled
31
comments
18
forecasters
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?
00
46
comments
18
forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?
Combined
result:
20.9
Flu
result:
8.9
COVID-19
result:
7.7
1 other
condition
Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
124
Resolved:
Annulled
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
13
13
comments
17
17
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
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