111 comments
127 forecasters
What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
83.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Contributed by the JetBrains community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9
Toloka's µ-MATH94.1
Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8
0 comments
107 forecasters
[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
34.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
0 comments
44 forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
11.5
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
1 comment
41 forecasters
What will be the result of the vote chess game, IM Levy Rozman Vs. The World?
Draw39.6%
Rozman loss34.7%
Rozman victory25.7%