2 comments
7 forecasters
What will be the result of the vote chess game, IM Levy Rozman Vs. The World?
Rozman victory68%
Draw27%
Rozman loss5%
0 comments
107 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
15%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
13 comments
131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
0 comments
98 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Latest estimate
46.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
21 Nov 2027
Key Factors