3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
7 comments
123 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
0 comments
98 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Latest estimate
46.3%
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
100 forecasters
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
564 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 Sep 2027
21 comments
61 forecasters
Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?
5%chance
2% this week