If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?198282 comments235235 forecasters
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2424 forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?61584584 comments1.2k1.2k forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected U.S. president in the following years?22 comments9393 forecasters
What proportion of SCOTUS decisions issued in Q2 2026 will be authored by a Democrat-appointed Justice?0.267 (0.221 - 0.323)111 comment66 forecasters0.267 (0.221 - 0.323)
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.48 (7.21 - 7.66)20 comments135135 forecasters7.48 (7.21 - 7.66)
Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?2.6% chance888 comments9999 forecasters2.6%chance
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance