82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
584 comments
1.2k forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
3 comments
115 forecasters
Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?
18%chance
12% this week
0 comments
7 forecasters
Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?
8%chance
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203061%
205040%
204040%
0 comments
10 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.35
14 comments
35 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance