0 comments
8 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
584 comments
1.2k forecasters
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harrisresult: Yes
Joe Bidenresult: No
Gavin Newsomresult: No
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
29 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203063%
204040%
205040%
12 comments
33 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.22
30 comments
44 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas49%
California35%
Florida20%
0 comments
142 forecasters
Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?
35%chance