82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)result: Yes
Kamala Harris (D)result: No
Gavin Newsom (D)Annulled
3.9k comments
3.6k forecasters
Who will be elected US President in 2024?
Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
29 comments
1.2k forecasters
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
2%chance
Key Factors
60 comments
318 forecasters
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3%chance
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203061%
205040%
204040%
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.35
14 comments
35 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance