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The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is Live!

8

If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

19

235

235 forecasters

Announcing the US Midterms 2026 Tournament - $10,000 Prize Pool

9

What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?

24

24 forecasters

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

312

3.9k 3.9k comments

3.6k

3.6k forecasters

Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?

2% chance

25

321

321 forecasters

2%chance

Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?

10% chance

10

459

459 forecasters

10%chance

What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?

7.48 (7.21 - 7.66)

2

135

135 forecasters

7.48

(7.21 - 7.66)

Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?

1% chance

2

84

84 forecasters

1%chance

$10,000 Prize Pool for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index

23

Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?

7% chance

2

42

42 forecasters

7%chance

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US vs. OECD PISA Math Scores? (2029)

2

5

5 forecasters

Which anonymous administration figure authored the NYT editorial?

8

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7

Future Perfect 2021 Series

7

Public Figures: New Figure Suggestions

34

183 183 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12

From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control

5

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

Metaculus on the election

Forecast International Elections With Data Journalist Kiko Llaneras

11

Predict the Impact of the 2024 US Presidential Election

10