Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?57% chance855 comments2525 forecasters57%chance
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?8% chance0 comments115115 forecasters8%chance
How many laboratory-confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo virus) cases will WHO report in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by September 1, 2026?648 cases (365 - 1083)0 comments4646 forecasters648 cases (365 - 1083)
Will the People's Republic of China blockade or quarantine Taiwan before September 1, 2026?8% chance0 comments1212 forecasters8%chance
What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1717 forecasters
What will the WastewaterSCAN national wastewater category for Norovirus GII be for the week ending June 13, 2026?0 comments3838 forecasters
How many cumulative norovirus outbreaks will CDC NoroSTAT report for the 2025–2026 season as of June 12, 2026?1301 value (1245 - 1377)0 comments7979 forecasters1301 value (1245 - 1377)
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?10% chance199 comments6060 forecasters10%chance
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?9.5% chance-166 comments9494 forecastersAnnulled
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35252 comments205205 forecasters1%chance
Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?result: no104104 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?result: no111111 comments110110 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" population cap referendum?10 comments55 forecasters%chance
What will be the mean of the top 10 scores on the Metaculus 2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard?37.3 points (33.8 - 43.8)-122 comments66 forecasters37.3 points (33.8 - 43.8)
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.7% chance51818 comments104104 forecasters0.7%chance
What cumulative influenza-associated pediatric death total will CDC report for the 2025–26 U.S. flu season in the last eligible FluView before April 30, 2026?147 Deaths (126 - 176)108108 comments106106 forecasters147 Deaths (126 - 176)