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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai)

Current estimate

Revealed

in 57 minutes

0 comments

99 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

By 23:59 PKT on December 31, 2025, will an official source report at least 11,000,000 girls aged 9–14 vaccinated against HPV in Pakistan’s September 2025 Phase‑1 campaign areas?

This question is closed for forecasting.

15 comments

16 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H3N284.7

H1N117.9

H5<0.1

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

2%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

95 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Latest estimate

40.7M birds

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

6 6 comments

AI Pathways Tournament

0 comments

106 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

96 comments

96 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?"?

resultNo

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113

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