97.848 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
96.607 | Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
96.307 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso) | Binary |
94.977 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
94.899 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
94.006 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
93.803 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
93.754 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP) | Binary |
93.672 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens) | Binary |
91.376 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU) | Binary |
89.999 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
88.136 | Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024? | Binary |
88.105 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens) | Binary |
87.174 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens) | Binary |
83.548 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
83.539 | Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023? | Binary |
83.113 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |
83.098 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek) | Binary |
83.098 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |
83.090 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller) | Binary |
83.026 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |
83.013 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |
82.999 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu) | Binary |
82.934 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu) | Binary |
82.845 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
82.824 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül) | Binary |
82.777 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |
82.577 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |
82.242 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |
82.026 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |
82.026 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |
81.893 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
81.768 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |
80.578 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
78.705 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP) | Binary |
78.667 | Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party? | Binary |
76.381 | Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
72.021 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
71.719 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan) | Binary |
71.407 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
70.024 | Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season? | Binary |
68.534 | Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023? | Binary |
67.173 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
64.480 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar) | Binary |
63.672 | Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023? | Binary |
60.814 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
55.539 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |
52.499 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi) | Binary |
49.964 | Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards? | Binary |
49.718 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
48.906 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
48.684 | Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023? | Binary |
48.037 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R)) | Binary |
46.601 | Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022? | Binary |
45.893 | In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012? | Binary |
45.601 | Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022? | Binary |
41.979 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
41.964 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R)) | Binary |
41.942 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R)) | Binary |
41.407 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
41.394 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R)) | Binary |
40.182 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
40.088 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
39.562 | [Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023? | Binary |
36.887 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
35.177 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | Binary |
34.783 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
31.811 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight? | Binary |
30.665 | Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? | Binary |
30.470 | Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
24.814 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes) | Binary |
24.016 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
23.995 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
23.866 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.396 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R)) | Binary |
17.643 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
17.420 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf) | Binary |
15.972 | Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote? | Binary |
12.358 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
11.911 | Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
11.710 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
11.414 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | Binary |
10.609 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
10.166 | [Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
10.016 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
9.757 | Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu) | Binary |
8.732 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.382 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.111 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? | Binary |
3.712 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
3.676 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |
0.650 | Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time? | Binary |
-3.433 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-5.923 | Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023? | Binary |
-11.577 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |
-15.366 | Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024? | Binary |
-21.733 | Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship? | Binary |
-25.029 | Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow? | Binary |
-38.250 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
-40.466 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left) | Binary |
-48.231 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-106.517 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |
-133.294 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-239.806 | What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU) | Binary |