149.397 | What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
90.235 | Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
89.066 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
86.050 | Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
85.388 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
82.848 | Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
81.871 | Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history? | Binary |
78.300 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
78.193 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
73.161 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
72.830 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
71.079 | Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
69.775 | Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
68.970 | Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023? | Binary |
68.152 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |
67.863 | Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? | Binary |
64.482 | Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023? | Binary |
61.799 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
61.478 | Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
60.082 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
59.663 | Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law? | Binary |
58.386 | Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate? | Binary |
56.944 | Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023? | Binary |
54.976 | Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India? | Binary |
53.993 | ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023? | Binary |
53.642 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
53.184 | Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023? | Binary |
52.619 | Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate? | Binary |
51.925 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
51.712 | Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
50.893 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
50.825 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
50.463 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
49.782 | Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023? | Binary |
48.233 | Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
45.556 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
44.351 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
43.714 | Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023? | Binary |
40.942 | Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety? | Binary |
40.490 | Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023? | Binary |
39.729 | Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024? | Binary |
38.328 | Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days? | Binary |
36.590 | Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
36.564 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024? | Binary |
36.154 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
35.422 | Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024? | Binary |
34.873 | Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning? | Binary |
34.675 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
33.739 | Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023? | Binary |
32.455 | Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023? | Binary |
31.882 | Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023? | Binary |
30.567 | Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon? | Binary |
28.208 | Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023? | Binary |
27.561 | Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place? | Binary |
27.066 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
26.812 | Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024? | Binary |
25.110 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
25.110 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
25.110 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan) | Binary |
25.110 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu) | Binary |
25.110 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan) | Binary |
24.896 | Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023? | Binary |
24.500 | Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st? | Binary |
24.488 | Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024? | Binary |
22.168 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023? | Binary |
20.297 | Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
19.533 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
19.073 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
18.881 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
18.029 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal) | Binary |
18.029 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu) | Binary |
16.478 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
16.132 | Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.950 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.309 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
12.680 | Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023? | Binary |
12.413 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
12.348 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R)) | Binary |
12.143 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.943 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan) | Binary |
11.943 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli) | Binary |
11.908 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
10.731 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
9.361 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
9.252 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
8.287 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
7.928 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
7.248 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
6.430 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan) | Binary |
6.325 | Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election? | Binary |
5.889 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
5.808 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül) | Binary |
5.508 | Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023? | Binary |
3.784 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
3.593 | Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election? | Binary |
3.465 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.109 | Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)? | Binary |
3.106 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener) | Binary |
3.075 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
2.950 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
2.854 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
2.314 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R)) | Binary |
1.997 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
1.539 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
1.112 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | Binary |
-1.525 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R)) | Binary |
-3.014 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
-3.440 | Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)? | Binary |
-4.027 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
-5.448 | Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023? | Binary |
-7.242 | Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
-7.455 | Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012? | Binary |
-26.428 | Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional? | Binary |
-40.936 | Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
-56.991 | US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024? | Binary |