96.533 | Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023) | Binary |
95.423 | Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
94.085 | Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? | Binary |
93.675 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
92.047 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
87.609 | Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
87.488 | Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
86.686 | Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023? | Binary |
85.530 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024? | Binary |
84.220 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
83.001 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024? | Binary |
81.742 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
76.478 | Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024? | Binary |
76.319 | Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate? | Binary |
74.204 | Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023? | Binary |
72.604 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
71.683 | Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023? | Binary |
71.583 | Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024? | Binary |
71.117 | Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024? | Binary |
70.710 | Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions? | Binary |
67.692 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Binary |
66.071 | Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024? | Binary |
56.945 | Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting? | Binary |
55.624 | Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
51.778 | Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
51.490 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
51.211 | Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections? | Binary |
51.181 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
50.186 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024? | Binary |
49.053 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
48.914 | Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023? | Binary |
47.385 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
46.140 | Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
43.342 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023? | Binary |
40.706 | Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class? | Binary |
37.690 | How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023? | Continuous |
35.339 | Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |
35.300 | What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023? | Continuous |
34.744 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023? | Continuous |
34.377 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023? | Binary |
32.656 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
32.581 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
32.577 | Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023? | Binary |
29.085 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
26.233 | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | Binary |
24.239 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R)) | Binary |
24.238 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D)) | Binary |
24.238 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R)) | Binary |
24.238 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
24.005 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
23.620 | Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
23.550 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
23.151 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.580 | Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023? | Binary |
18.584 | Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023? | Binary |
18.328 | Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
18.150 | Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023? | Binary |
17.139 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023? | Continuous |
15.969 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.371 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.917 | Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024? | Binary |
14.571 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R)) | Binary |
14.308 | Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024? | Binary |
12.702 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023? | Continuous |
11.633 | Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
10.750 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024) | Binary |
9.538 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
8.547 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023? | Binary |
7.967 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
7.364 | Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023? | Binary |
6.600 | Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023? | Binary |
5.024 | Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
4.106 | Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
3.523 | Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023? | Binary |
2.810 | Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit? | Binary |
2.625 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | Binary |
2.430 | Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024? | Binary |
1.905 | Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.196 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R)) | Binary |
0.156 | Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.031 | How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located? | Continuous |
-0.638 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-3.037 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
-10.251 | Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023? | Binary |
-12.094 | Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? | Binary |
-12.537 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024? | Binary |
-15.291 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-16.305 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
-17.404 | Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023? | Binary |
-20.806 | [Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R)) | Binary |
-27.053 | Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023? | Binary |
-28.892 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
-29.657 | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-32.931 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-33.103 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
-49.271 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
-52.744 | Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024? | Binary |
-65.299 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023) | Binary |
-77.327 | Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-366.108 | Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024? | Binary |