QkpVeHovc3pkaE1

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.877	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
77.760	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
54.019	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
36.049	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
33.744	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
29.961	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
27.969	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.185	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.625	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
20.019	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
16.752	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
14.072	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
12.955	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.908	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
12.833	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
12.473	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
11.980	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.212	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.196	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
10.574	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.201	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
9.268	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
9.074	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
8.249	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
8.067	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
7.956	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
7.271	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
7.081	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.695	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
6.667	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
6.372	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.054	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.043	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
5.945	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.943	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.390	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
5.350	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
5.134	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.076	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
4.707	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.614	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
4.308	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
3.475	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.390	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
3.069	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
3.032	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
3.011	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.924	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
2.879	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.786	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
2.774	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
2.716	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
2.565	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
2.417	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
2.366	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
2.155	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
2.134	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
1.980	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.808	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.780	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.772	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.673	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.672	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.622	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
1.526	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.460	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
0.833	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.536	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
-4.594	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-13.721	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-15.405	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.117	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-29.561	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-32.327	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
-103.476	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous