traviswfisher

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5883	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
119.605	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
98.539	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
98.535	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
98.526	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
98.264	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
97.814	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
97.782	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
97.458	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
97.110	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
97.057	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
96.845	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
95.802	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
95.561	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
95.523	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
95.445	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
94.543	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
94.099	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
94.063	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
94.035	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
93.745	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
93.538	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
92.711	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
92.601	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
92.492	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
92.341	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
91.777	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
90.959	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
88.712	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
88.220	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
88.171	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
88.084	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
87.937	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
86.744	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
85.874	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
83.677	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
83.375	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
83.102	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
83.082	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
82.838	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
80.825	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
80.266	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
79.930	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
79.898	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
79.170	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
77.662	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
77.567	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
77.507	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
76.434	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
76.341	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
76.207	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
75.274	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
75.056	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
74.847	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
74.330	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
74.247	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
74.017	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
73.014	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
72.780	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
71.852	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
71.834	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
71.358	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
71.313	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
70.964	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
70.271	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
70.255	Airships by 2019?	Binary
70.046	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
69.579	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
67.890	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
67.732	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
66.965	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
66.834	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
66.677	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
66.661	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
66.537	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
65.826	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
64.120	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
63.608	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
61.451	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
58.735	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
55.832	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
55.589	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
52.884	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
52.515	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
49.865	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
48.353	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
47.478	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
44.325	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
43.922	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
43.274	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
42.415	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
42.400	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
42.067	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
42.033	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
41.283	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
41.257	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
40.406	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
39.846	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
39.777	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
39.491	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
38.937	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
37.380	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
36.626	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
36.168	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
35.413	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
35.094	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
30.581	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
30.552	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
29.787	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
28.867	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
28.277	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
27.626	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
26.030	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
23.438	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
22.493	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
13.684	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
13.560	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
12.860	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
10.964	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
10.593	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
9.464	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
8.673	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
8.133	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
7.627	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
5.871	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
5.646	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
3.709	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
2.835	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
2.174	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
1.778	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
1.738	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
0.356	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.260	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-1.666	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-14.836	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-25.142	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-25.860	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-28.070	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-28.373	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-30.992	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-33.568	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
-33.706	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-34.012	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-34.137	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-38.425	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-38.543	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-42.462	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-47.174	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-48.803	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-53.761	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-56.719	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
-59.909	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-71.767	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-88.748	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-105.341	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-114.569	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-124.844	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-138.070	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-173.169	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-227.545	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-391.147	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary