James

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

4.594k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.061	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
94.552	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
94.280	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
92.687	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
92.587	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
91.908	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
91.689	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
89.094	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
87.650	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
87.542	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
87.377	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
85.628	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
85.325	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
85.063	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
84.641	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
84.224	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
83.992	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
83.843	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
83.761	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
83.695	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
83.429	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
83.404	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
81.871	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
80.605	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
80.366	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
80.045	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
79.003	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
78.501	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
76.665	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
76.654	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
76.356	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
75.499	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
74.915	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
74.843	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
72.285	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
68.465	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
68.151	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
68.145	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
67.546	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
66.811	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
66.441	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
66.342	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
66.289	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
66.157	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
65.721	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
63.610	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
62.898	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
62.321	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
61.991	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
60.291	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
58.612	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
58.465	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
58.345	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
58.345	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
58.344	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
56.317	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
53.947	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
53.517	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
53.030	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
52.873	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
52.734	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
52.588	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
50.048	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
49.576	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
49.331	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
49.047	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
48.620	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
48.071	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
47.699	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
47.020	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
44.349	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
44.080	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
43.610	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
43.476	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
42.686	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
42.270	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
42.221	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
42.202	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
42.180	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
42.155	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
42.114	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
42.041	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
42.011	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
41.756	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
40.217	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
40.182	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
40.098	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
38.961	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
38.834	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
38.327	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
37.980	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
36.745	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
36.482	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
35.757	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
35.315	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
35.295	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
33.371	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
31.940	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
31.262	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
30.701	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
30.497	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
28.755	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
28.745	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
28.452	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
27.705	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
27.243	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
26.297	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
26.290	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
26.220	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
26.194	Airships by 2019?	Binary
26.092	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
24.926	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
23.458	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
22.124	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
21.724	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
21.576	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
21.482	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
18.968	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
14.315	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
11.835	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
6.698	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
5.180	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
4.930	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
3.620	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
2.023	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
1.323	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
0.953	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
0.013	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-0.490	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-1.167	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-8.116	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-9.626	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-12.787	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-15.547	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-30.726	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-31.720	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-31.908	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-32.404	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-38.591	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-39.211	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-44.368	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-55.636	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-68.841	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-72.702	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-73.657	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-76.350	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-79.008	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-82.926	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-85.556	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-94.794	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-99.835	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-127.660	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-138.537	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-146.866	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-169.751	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-170.290	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-230.489	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary