Pablo

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.672k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
120.457	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
96.132	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
95.735	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
95.232	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
93.996	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
93.163	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
90.564	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
86.455	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
83.982	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
79.267	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
78.980	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
78.699	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
78.338	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
74.841	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
74.548	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
74.389	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
72.417	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
72.050	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
70.036	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
68.914	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
68.285	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
67.185	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
66.607	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
66.450	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
66.285	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
64.046	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
62.628	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
60.913	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
57.831	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
57.230	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
54.672	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
53.121	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
52.194	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
50.812	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
49.557	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
49.156	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
46.818	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
45.685	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
44.556	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
44.280	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
43.922	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
40.290	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
39.646	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
39.540	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
37.465	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
37.335	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
32.950	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
31.732	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
31.711	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
31.046	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
30.328	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
30.200	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
28.951	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
28.777	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
25.737	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
23.657	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
22.280	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
21.347	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
20.137	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
17.821	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
17.595	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
17.557	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
13.731	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
13.115	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
9.240	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
7.820	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
7.567	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
6.422	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
5.490	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
4.436	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.351	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
4.339	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
3.528	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
3.194	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
2.524	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
2.191	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
1.498	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
1.233	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
1.143	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.546	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-1.782	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-1.800	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-2.316	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-4.507	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-40.879	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-46.757	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-55.431	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-58.357	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-63.412	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-85.948	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-122.490	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-182.587	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-211.063	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary