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User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.847k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.705	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
91.788	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
90.778	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
88.744	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
88.338	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
85.995	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
79.061	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
78.717	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
74.934	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
73.513	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
72.269	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
69.487	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
69.257	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
67.092	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
64.406	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
62.108	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
61.273	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
59.555	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
58.446	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
56.984	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
56.942	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
56.827	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
56.404	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
55.894	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
55.788	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
54.477	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
54.288	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
53.802	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
53.091	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
51.150	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
49.078	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
48.471	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
48.312	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
47.607	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
46.129	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
45.917	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
45.668	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
45.035	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
44.959	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
44.084	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
43.411	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
42.536	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
41.226	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
40.827	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
40.230	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
38.918	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
37.029	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
36.816	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
36.620	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
36.529	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
36.440	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
35.279	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
34.692	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
33.235	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
33.002	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
30.966	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
30.858	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
30.083	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
29.422	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
28.734	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
26.760	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
26.733	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
26.635	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
26.280	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
25.513	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
24.707	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
23.239	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
22.077	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
20.334	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
17.942	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
17.920	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
17.509	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
16.611	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
16.406	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
16.343	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
16.059	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
15.959	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
15.857	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
15.714	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
15.013	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
14.083	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
13.758	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
13.465	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
13.003	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
12.734	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
12.529	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
12.366	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
10.735	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
10.446	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
8.813	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
6.338	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
6.277	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
4.608	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.357	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
3.517	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
3.343	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
2.965	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
2.932	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
2.744	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
2.742	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
2.277	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
2.253	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
2.072	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
1.500	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.896	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
0.669	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.368	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
0.260	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
0.240	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-0.623	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-0.654	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-5.049	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-6.762	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-8.869	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-11.818	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-13.302	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-20.291	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-20.699	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
-21.315	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
-28.342	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-28.499	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-28.519	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-41.043	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-45.074	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-54.153	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-54.440	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-62.693	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-67.323	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
-76.908	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-77.204	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-131.896	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-144.056	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary