Bernhard

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020-21

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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460.6	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
198.296	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
168.504	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
158.971	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
137.163	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
128.776	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
120.593	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
119.345	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
117.551	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
112.659	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
111.691	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
107.899	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
102.887	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
102.818	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
99.232	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
94.025	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
93.084	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
91.854	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
91.236	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
90.288	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
89.354	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
87.663	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
86.322	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
85.995	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
85.968	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
85.421	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
84.942	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
84.498	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
84.138	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
84.100	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
83.929	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
82.542	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
80.161	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
79.952	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
79.866	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
79.495	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
77.783	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
76.382	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
76.294	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
75.145	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
74.515	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
73.977	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
73.635	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
72.269	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
72.202	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
71.139	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
69.428	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
68.930	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
67.936	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
67.800	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
67.443	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
67.412	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
66.874	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
66.750	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
66.311	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
65.993	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
65.639	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
65.243	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
64.356	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
64.301	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
62.524	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
61.117	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
59.729	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
59.681	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
59.431	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
59.418	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
58.726	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
58.209	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
58.046	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
57.782	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
57.541	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
56.545	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
54.758	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
53.962	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
53.780	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
49.616	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
49.579	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
49.265	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
48.402	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
48.330	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
47.495	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
47.365	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
46.325	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
46.068	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
45.963	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
45.598	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
45.318	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
44.413	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
42.963	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
42.314	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
41.934	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
41.544	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
41.350	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
41.213	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
40.014	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
39.872	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
39.054	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
38.422	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
38.155	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
37.939	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
37.115	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
36.195	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
35.362	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
33.627	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
32.582	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
31.680	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
31.657	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
30.509	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
29.587	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
29.505	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
29.340	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
26.221	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
25.048	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
25.039	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
24.546	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.938	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
22.366	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.414	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
19.842	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
15.161	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
15.148	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
13.196	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
12.047	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
11.109	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
8.665	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
8.381	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
8.323	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
6.992	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
2.238	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
2.046	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
1.779	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
0.681	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-1.417	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
-2.197	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-2.828	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-8.583	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-9.910	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
-10.204	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-10.651	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-12.681	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
-14.666	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-14.878	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-15.169	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
-16.423	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-17.733	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
-21.869	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
-27.234	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-29.363	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-30.961	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-31.906	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-33.962	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
-35.663	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
-37.842	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-41.277	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-41.302	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-41.669	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-45.126	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
-48.801	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-49.321	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-49.691	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-52.660	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-55.558	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
-56.800	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
-58.000	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-59.068	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-59.631	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
-60.130	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-62.772	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-64.082	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
-64.998	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-65.960	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-70.181	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-71.011	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-71.070	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-73.069	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-81.122	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-81.894	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-104.802	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-106.682	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-109.638	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
-114.832	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-117.745	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
-130.810	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-136.106	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-139.027	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-141.940	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-143.126	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-146.599	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-158.508	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-166.261	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-171.060	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-174.818	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-178.929	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-180.706	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-182.635	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-185.390	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-186.849	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-189.582	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-192.938	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-193.895	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-195.147	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-195.930	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-197.331	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-200.886	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-204.022	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-210.694	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-211.115	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-212.550	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-216.706	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-218.860	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous