AngraMainyu

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

3.841k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.845	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
98.424	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
98.316	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
98.303	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
98.198	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
98.174	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
98.127	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
97.830	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
97.812	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
95.639	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
95.500	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
95.015	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
94.819	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
94.622	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
94.574	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
93.258	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
92.770	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
91.549	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
90.801	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
90.586	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
90.483	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
90.417	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
90.132	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
89.607	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
89.075	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
87.539	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
86.745	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
85.856	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
85.466	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
84.518	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
84.210	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
82.651	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
81.260	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
81.145	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
80.715	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
80.102	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
76.178	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
75.951	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
75.882	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
70.910	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
69.032	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
68.052	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
67.525	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
67.460	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
65.797	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
64.997	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
63.505	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
62.736	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
62.615	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
62.381	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
61.957	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
60.338	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
58.236	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
55.407	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
55.352	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
54.706	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
54.573	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
54.171	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
50.374	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
50.093	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
49.393	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
49.363	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
48.240	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
47.910	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
46.872	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
45.629	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
44.334	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
42.710	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
40.979	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
39.925	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
38.463	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
37.885	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
37.740	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
37.739	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
33.592	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
30.287	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
26.302	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
26.218	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
22.534	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
22.143	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
21.718	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
21.234	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
20.736	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
19.116	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
18.387	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
16.522	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
15.905	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
9.204	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
8.463	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
8.064	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
3.234	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
2.596	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
1.836	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
1.385	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.408	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
0.300	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
0.032	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-11.763	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-20.098	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-24.302	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-28.269	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-32.618	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-33.457	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-33.721	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-41.421	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-42.819	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-43.446	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-44.131	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-47.330	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-54.106	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-61.718	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-68.589	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-104.636	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-123.452	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-140.329	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-141.723	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-143.513	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-149.524	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-236.535	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-272.588	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary