Barbarossa

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.556k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.646	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
93.002	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
92.599	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
86.756	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
85.614	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
84.431	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
84.122	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
81.954	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
79.487	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
77.451	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
75.991	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
75.908	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
69.412	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
68.728	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
68.459	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
67.600	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
67.063	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
65.846	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
65.719	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
65.551	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
63.304	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
62.669	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
62.295	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
61.120	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
60.772	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
60.741	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
60.561	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
58.309	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
58.083	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
54.939	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
54.486	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
48.199	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
47.790	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
47.166	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
46.047	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
42.512	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
41.342	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
38.471	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
37.891	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
37.824	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
36.133	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
35.989	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
33.923	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
33.290	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
33.071	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
32.479	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
29.839	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
29.293	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
28.321	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
26.695	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
26.207	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
26.095	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
25.844	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
23.976	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
23.940	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
23.553	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
23.443	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
22.451	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
22.303	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
21.189	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
18.832	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
18.234	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
17.825	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
16.285	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
15.546	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
14.249	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
13.827	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
13.038	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
12.956	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
10.793	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
10.682	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
10.164	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
8.702	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
8.630	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
8.015	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
7.951	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
7.319	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
7.269	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
4.880	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
4.787	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
1.290	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
1.147	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
1.104	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
0.755	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-0.122	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
-0.199	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-1.417	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-2.307	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-2.599	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-2.766	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-2.959	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-3.042	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
-3.198	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-3.382	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-5.033	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-5.473	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
-9.129	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-9.414	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-12.066	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-12.128	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
-13.380	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-14.577	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-16.873	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-31.209	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
-52.863	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-53.862	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-56.392	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-57.992	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-59.783	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-87.177	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-128.043	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-182.785	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary