AABoyles

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

687.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
109.118	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
90.492	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
74.672	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
66.481	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
52.984	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
52.698	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
51.443	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
42.387	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
41.949	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
37.362	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
36.454	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
35.377	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
35.360	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
32.224	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
28.683	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
25.086	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
22.917	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
20.167	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
20.112	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
20.105	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
18.785	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
18.435	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
17.117	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
13.792	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
12.730	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
12.642	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
9.650	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
8.335	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
6.900	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
6.116	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
5.703	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
4.967	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
4.910	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
4.715	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
4.624	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
4.303	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
4.213	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
2.957	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
2.275	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
2.132	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
2.114	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
1.493	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
1.270	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
1.080	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
0.114	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-0.210	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-12.408	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-12.496	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-33.606	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-37.195	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-60.134	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-64.841	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-77.273	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-81.488	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary