99.709 | How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses? | Continuous |
92.536 | How impeached will Trump be? | Continuous |
90.888 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | Binary |
90.143 | Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020? | Binary |
89.949 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | Binary |
88.734 | First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020? | Binary |
88.534 | Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term? | Binary |
88.207 | Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | Binary |
84.773 | Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law? | Binary |
82.292 | When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI? | Continuous |
79.615 | Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021? | Binary |
78.320 | Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States? | Binary |
77.705 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | Binary |
76.301 | If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president? | Binary |
70.513 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | Binary |
63.674 | Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020? | Binary |
62.900 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | Binary |
61.711 | Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member? | Binary |
60.488 | What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”? | Continuous |
60.165 | How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020? | Continuous |
59.000 | Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021? | Binary |
57.993 | How much will President Trump govern by decree? | Continuous |
56.930 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline | Binary |
56.358 | Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve? | Binary |
56.282 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018 | Binary |
55.661 | Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer? | Continuous |
46.241 | Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021? | Binary |
43.362 | Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX? | Binary |
41.067 | Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election? | Binary |
40.677 | Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? | Binary |
40.126 | By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther? | Binary |
40.001 | Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021? | Binary |
38.965 | Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders? | Binary |
38.687 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | Binary |
38.517 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021? | Binary |
37.862 | Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary? | Binary |
37.785 | Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021? | Binary |
36.280 | How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019? | Continuous |
35.672 | Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020? | Binary |
35.635 | When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States? | Continuous |
32.719 | Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination? | Binary |
32.105 | By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation? | Binary |
30.070 | Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020? | Binary |
29.591 | How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election? | Continuous |
29.515 | Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1? | Binary |
28.474 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M? | Binary |
27.585 | Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option? | Binary |
26.794 | A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020? | Binary |
26.130 | Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary? | Binary |
26.083 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | Binary |
25.253 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020? | Binary |
23.723 | Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021? | Binary |
23.461 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started? | Binary |
22.161 | Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021? | Binary |
21.262 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | Binary |
15.357 | A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | Binary |
12.324 | Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020? | Binary |
9.528 | A medical pathway to complete painlessness? | Binary |
8.324 | Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022? | Binary |
7.793 | Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? | Binary |
4.893 | Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020? | Binary |
3.973 | How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be? | Continuous |
2.983 | Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary? | Binary |
2.747 | When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators? | Continuous |
0.363 | When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2? | Continuous |
0.294 | Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people? | Binary |
-0.280 | Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office? | Binary |
-0.633 | Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? | Binary |
-0.941 | By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term? | Binary |
-0.973 | When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States? | Continuous |
-2.610 | Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency? | Binary |
-4.294 | How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year? | Continuous |
-9.882 | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | Binary |
-12.196 | Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020? | Binary |
-13.813 | A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion? | Binary |
-15.062 | Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021? | Binary |
-16.105 | Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | Binary |
-17.242 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | Binary |
-25.484 | How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020? | Continuous |
-31.605 | Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020? | Binary |
-32.862 | Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021? | Binary |
-35.766 | Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020? | Binary |
-53.132 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | Binary |
-70.366 | What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market? | Continuous |
-86.148 | Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020? | Binary |
-122.052 | By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark? | Binary |
-171.947 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | Binary |