178.265 | What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021) | Continuous |
161.150 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
123.287 | What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? | Continuous |
115.858 | For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | Continuous |
103.710 | What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD? | Continuous |
101.931 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | Continuous |
101.707 | For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | Continuous |
99.954 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | Continuous |
98.317 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
95.464 | Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? | Binary |
93.814 | What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | Continuous |
93.328 | Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? | Binary |
92.591 | Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? | Binary |
92.281 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | Continuous |
91.080 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | Binary |
90.652 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | Binary |
90.350 | How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season? | Continuous |
90.227 | Will Trump freely leave the White House? | Binary |
89.390 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | Binary |
88.036 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? | Binary |
86.797 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021? | Continuous |
86.665 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30? | Continuous |
83.598 | How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report? | Continuous |
82.945 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | Binary |
82.732 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021? | Continuous |
82.172 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | Binary |
81.287 | Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021? | Binary |
79.981 | Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? | Binary |
79.253 | What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | Continuous |
78.340 | What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | Continuous |
77.970 | What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | Continuous |
76.965 | How will Donald Trump rank among presidents? | Continuous |
75.823 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | Binary |
75.087 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? | Binary |
73.649 | What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? | Continuous |
72.854 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Binary |
71.785 | How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020? | Continuous |
71.271 | How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | Continuous |
70.286 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
68.676 | Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? | Binary |
67.467 | How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? | Continuous |
67.234 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | Binary |
66.796 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | Binary |
66.522 | What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021? | Continuous |
65.900 | Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? | Binary |
65.677 | Will the Open Courts Act become law? | Binary |
65.656 | What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? | Continuous |
65.497 | What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? | Continuous |
65.439 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | Binary |
64.512 | Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? | Binary |
63.963 | Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | Binary |
63.105 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021? | Continuous |
61.712 | What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021? | Continuous |
60.660 | When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? | Continuous |
60.071 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021? | Continuous |
60.033 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | Binary |
59.753 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | Binary |
59.296 | How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? | Continuous |
58.876 | What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
58.782 | Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom? | Binary |
58.485 | Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021? | Binary |
57.871 | How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? | Continuous |
55.586 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
54.772 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021? | Continuous |
54.634 | What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election? | Continuous |
54.396 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
54.112 | What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
52.908 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
51.526 | Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? | Binary |
51.520 | What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
51.439 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
51.383 | How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? | Continuous |
50.926 | What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | Continuous |
50.890 | On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? | Binary |
50.631 | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | Binary |
50.519 | Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? | Binary |
49.938 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021? | Binary |
49.719 | What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close? | Continuous |
48.832 | What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
48.640 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | Binary |
48.560 | If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021? | Continuous |
48.354 | What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee? | Continuous |
47.390 | How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022? | Continuous |
45.878 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? | Binary |
45.781 | For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? | Binary |
45.745 | How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? | Continuous |
45.646 | How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? | Continuous |
44.317 | Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021? | Binary |
44.253 | Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
42.445 | What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020? | Continuous |
42.094 | What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021? | Continuous |
41.668 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | Binary |
41.260 | Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | Binary |
40.623 | How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? | Continuous |
40.570 | How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range] | Continuous |
40.484 | What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021? | Continuous |
39.978 | What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? | Continuous |
39.594 | Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021? | Binary |
39.442 | What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021? | Continuous |
39.160 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy? | Continuous |
38.754 | What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021? | Continuous |
38.752 | If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? | Binary |
38.719 | What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27? | Continuous |
36.521 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | Binary |
36.064 | How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
35.819 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | Binary |
34.006 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
33.182 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | Binary |
31.111 | Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? | Binary |
30.839 | When will the US-Canada border reopen? | Continuous |
30.002 | What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021? | Continuous |
28.365 | What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report? | Continuous |
27.550 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
27.017 | Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? | Binary |
26.763 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | Binary |
25.995 | Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? | Binary |
25.898 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States? | Continuous |
25.166 | If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed? | Binary |
24.819 | How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021? | Continuous |
24.693 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | Binary |
24.089 | When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
23.554 | How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? | Continuous |
23.413 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | Binary |
23.080 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
22.255 | Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? | Binary |
21.762 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021) | Continuous |
21.392 | What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published? | Continuous |
20.701 | When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? | Continuous |
20.265 | When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store? | Continuous |
20.211 | How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
19.182 | What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? | Continuous |
18.794 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | Binary |
18.430 | When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3) | Continuous |
18.136 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | Continuous |
17.271 | How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
16.868 | How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
13.618 | What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? | Continuous |
13.549 | Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas? | Binary |
12.690 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021) | Continuous |
12.386 | Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | Binary |
12.373 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
12.102 | Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online? | Binary |
11.880 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
11.853 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? | Continuous |
11.658 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021? | Continuous |
11.086 | What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year? | Continuous |
10.643 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
10.279 | What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? | Continuous |
9.841 | How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020? | Continuous |
8.930 | When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship? | Continuous |
8.432 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
8.067 | When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard? | Continuous |
7.995 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? | Binary |
7.902 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
7.691 | Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets? | Binary |
7.504 | What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? | Continuous |
5.718 | What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election? | Continuous |
4.689 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period? | Continuous |
4.113 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
2.774 | Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021? | Binary |
2.670 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020? | Binary |
2.410 | When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? | Continuous |
1.682 | When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people? | Continuous |
0.576 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy? | Continuous |
0.490 | When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020? | Continuous |
0.432 | How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be? | Continuous |
0.413 | If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? | Continuous |
-3.099 | What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting? | Continuous |
-3.338 | By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service? | Binary |
-3.655 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021? | Continuous |
-4.418 | Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021? | Binary |
-6.189 | When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England? | Continuous |
-6.347 | What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? | Continuous |
-7.158 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14? | Continuous |
-7.279 | How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | Continuous |
-7.498 | How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020? | Continuous |
-7.978 | In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20] | Continuous |
-8.564 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
-11.879 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | Binary |
-13.508 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? | Continuous |
-13.609 | Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? | Binary |
-17.621 | When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020? | Continuous |
-18.459 | Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics? | Binary |
-20.381 | How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? | Continuous |
-21.029 | When will Disneyland reopen? | Continuous |
-22.264 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)? | Continuous |
-24.461 | What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election? | Continuous |
-24.626 | Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? | Binary |
-26.150 | How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? | Continuous |
-34.349 | What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021? | Continuous |
-37.963 | How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? | Continuous |
-38.412 | What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? | Continuous |
-64.249 | When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? | Continuous |
-65.506 | Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021? | Binary |
-68.526 | Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? | Binary |
-91.466 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | Binary |
-100.931 | What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | Continuous |
-101.040 | What will inflation be in the US in 2021? | Continuous |
-103.086 | What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107? | Continuous |
-115.751 | Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day? | Binary |
-125.330 | Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |
-152.363 | Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD? | Binary |
-159.253 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021) | Continuous |
-176.267 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Binary |