| 161.513 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 144.037 | What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 139.534 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 120.049 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 117.518 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 109.036 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 108.381 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 98.903 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 98.516 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 97.821 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 97.275 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 97.200 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 97.114 | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 96.829 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.829 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 96.821 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 96.608 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 95.826 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 95.568 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 94.696 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.548 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.519 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 94.518 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.003 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.000 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 92.568 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.566 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.561 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 91.621 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 90.637 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 90.635 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 90.523 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 90.230 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 89.871 | What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 89.491 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 89.336 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 89.158 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 89.027 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 88.987 | What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 88.775 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 88.615 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 88.382 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 88.253 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 88.083 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 87.822 | What will be the world population in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 87.435 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 87.142 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.366 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 85.600 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 85.547 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 84.626 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 83.394 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 83.179 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 82.902 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 82.795 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 82.497 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 80.688 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 80.466 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 80.112 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 79.443 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 77.610 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 77.568 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 77.403 | What will the US life expectancy be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 77.080 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 76.729 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 76.377 | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 76.065 | Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026? | Binary |
| 75.698 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 73.951 | What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 73.942 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 69.407 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 69.245 | How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026? | Continuous |
| 68.338 | What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 67.829 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 67.719 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 67.116 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.793 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 66.492 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.307 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 65.990 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 65.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 65.666 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 65.497 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 65.395 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 65.260 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 64.795 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.774 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 64.663 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 64.515 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.269 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.180 | If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 63.587 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 63.111 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 62.780 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 62.573 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 62.414 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 62.219 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.206 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 61.372 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 61.179 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 60.253 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 59.407 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 59.351 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 57.944 | How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 57.476 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 53.343 | Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? | Binary |
| 52.532 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 51.078 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025) | Continuous |
| 49.636 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.367 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.389 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 47.418 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| 46.479 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 45.235 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 42.251 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 42.024 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025) | Continuous |
| 40.995 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 40.163 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.755 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.921 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 38.447 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 36.962 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025) | Continuous |
| 36.423 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 36.307 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 35.790 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 35.031 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 34.559 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 34.475 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.377 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 32.919 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.170 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 31.309 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 30.841 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.303 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 28.711 | How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 28.015 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 27.789 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 27.765 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 27.713 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 27.490 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 27.174 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 27.134 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 26.123 | How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.145 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 24.814 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.583 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 24.199 | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| 23.484 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.827 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 22.334 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 21.078 | What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.102 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 19.949 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.248 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 15.644 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 11.956 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 11.577 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 11.224 | When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)? | Continuous |
| 11.032 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.914 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.540 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.871 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.078 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.463 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.911 | What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 2.996 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.871 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.003 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.573 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.442 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| - | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -2.403 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -2.678 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| -6.884 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -8.078 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -8.641 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -11.478 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -11.694 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -12.187 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2024) | Continuous |
| -22.650 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -23.314 | What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -25.027 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -27.134 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -29.180 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -29.686 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -36.078 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -36.405 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -37.490 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -37.579 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -37.942 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -41.407 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| -43.688 | What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -71.611 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| -81.700 | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -88.013 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -98.211 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -151.182 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | Continuous |
| -177.037 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |