| 98.403 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.218 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 98.088 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.298 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.298 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 96.995 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 96.952 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.774 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 96.698 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.194 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.370 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.346 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 93.963 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 93.867 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 93.663 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.838 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.815 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 92.251 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.251 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 91.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 90.992 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.396 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 89.301 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 88.968 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 87.637 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 87.207 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 84.435 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 84.398 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 84.398 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 82.022 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 82.022 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 82.001 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 82.001 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 79.387 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 79.056 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 78.663 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 77.589 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 77.084 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 77.083 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 77.083 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 76.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 76.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 76.570 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 76.570 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 76.567 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 76.044 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 74.975 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 73.967 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.844 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 73.087 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 72.687 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 72.302 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 72.037 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 71.707 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 71.514 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 71.513 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.303 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 70.909 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 70.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 70.248 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 66.320 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 64.509 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 64.441 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.404 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.402 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.401 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 64.398 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 64.014 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 59.083 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.965 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.064 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 55.791 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 53.995 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 52.861 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.383 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.987 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.430 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.226 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 48.408 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 48.352 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.686 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 47.195 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 46.501 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.410 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 44.224 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 43.550 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 41.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 40.146 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 40.081 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 36.838 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 36.518 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 35.426 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.308 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 33.170 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.957 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 31.258 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 30.608 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 29.828 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.774 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 29.001 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 27.811 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 25.689 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.557 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 25.059 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 25.018 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 24.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 23.744 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.278 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 21.986 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.565 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.544 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.289 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 20.762 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.562 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.451 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 20.451 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 20.071 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 19.160 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 18.831 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.325 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 17.986 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 16.777 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 15.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 15.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 15.850 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 15.410 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.398 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 14.370 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 13.562 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 13.273 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 13.210 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.139 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 12.844 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 12.688 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 11.902 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 11.760 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 11.035 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.446 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 9.506 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 9.048 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 8.752 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 8.523 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 8.472 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 8.314 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 8.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 8.255 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.254 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.149 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 8.015 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 7.741 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 5.710 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 3.118 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 2.927 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 2.599 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 2.403 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 2.255 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.169 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.474 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 0.434 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.360 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| - | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| -0.185 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.594 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -2.883 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -6.087 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -7.247 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -7.247 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -7.461 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -9.766 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -11.897 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -12.340 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -15.034 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -17.583 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| -17.664 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -18.416 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -21.094 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| -23.243 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -24.609 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -25.025 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -35.896 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -38.475 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -47.273 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -62.073 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -68.699 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -84.994 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -277.678 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -296.097 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -311.803 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -337.634 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -338.179 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -515.350 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |