citizen

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.61k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
180.035	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
148.746	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
148.493	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
136.012	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
110.867	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
99.931	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
99.095	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
99.084	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
98.458	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
98.254	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
97.973	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
97.520	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
96.679	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
96.679	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
95.971	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
95.830	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
95.710	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
93.425	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
92.569	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
92.113	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
91.573	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
89.754	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
88.605	When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)	Continuous
88.365	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
88.194	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
88.098	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
87.851	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
87.311	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
86.656	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
85.668	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
85.518	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
85.471	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
85.388	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
85.287	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
84.148	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
83.992	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
83.786	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
83.207	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
82.613	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
82.589	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
82.577	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
82.045	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
80.458	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
80.234	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
79.752	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
79.332	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
78.720	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
76.572	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
76.541	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
75.710	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
75.674	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
75.012	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
74.737	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
74.161	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
73.790	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
73.668	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
73.424	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
72.869	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
72.818	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
72.086	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
71.930	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
71.496	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
70.821	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
68.786	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
68.491	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
67.726	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
67.244	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
67.229	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
66.714	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
66.630	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
66.527	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
66.477	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
66.476	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
66.364	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
66.186	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
65.934	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
65.562	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
65.460	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
65.417	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
65.302	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
64.232	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
63.468	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
62.637	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
62.589	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
62.017	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
61.967	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
60.803	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
60.800	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
59.539	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
59.362	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
59.085	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
58.948	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
58.700	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
58.171	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
58.066	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
57.782	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
57.722	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
57.360	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
56.855	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
56.464	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
55.389	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
55.333	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
55.311	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
55.188	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
54.212	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
54.045	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
52.984	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
52.117	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
51.880	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
51.644	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
51.617	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
51.416	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
51.369	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
51.281	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
51.185	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
50.603	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
50.602	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
50.588	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
50.493	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
50.130	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
49.811	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
49.141	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
49.126	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
49.034	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
48.774	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
48.755	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
48.676	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
48.649	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.458	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
48.415	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
48.331	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
48.290	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
48.261	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
47.897	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
47.647	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
47.172	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
47.096	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
47.073	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
46.595	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
46.566	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
46.423	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
46.078	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
45.887	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
45.887	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
45.887	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
45.733	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
45.616	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
45.579	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
44.946	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
44.484	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
44.300	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
44.123	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
44.055	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
43.593	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
43.500	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
43.433	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
43.284	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
42.908	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
41.419	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
41.133	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
40.925	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
40.821	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
40.439	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
40.010	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
39.905	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
39.813	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
39.786	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
39.350	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
39.022	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
38.652	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
38.534	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
38.484	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
38.123	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
38.022	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
37.880	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
37.368	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
37.254	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
36.486	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
36.344	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
35.960	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
35.562	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
34.912	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
34.435	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
33.622	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
33.020	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
29.925	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
29.707	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
29.679	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
29.346	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
28.878	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
28.351	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
27.703	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
27.687	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
26.625	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
26.215	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
25.031	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
24.505	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
23.500	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
22.903	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
22.369	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
22.149	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
22.115	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
22.076	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
21.845	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
21.537	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
21.281	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
20.486	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
20.286	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
19.764	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
19.754	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
19.698	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
19.140	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
18.821	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
18.709	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
18.704	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
18.665	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
17.373	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
16.937	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
16.602	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
16.538	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
16.166	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
16.000	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
15.847	How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?	Continuous
15.842	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
15.554	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
14.944	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
13.893	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
13.692	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
12.806	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
12.736	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
12.434	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
12.082	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
10.943	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
10.656	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
10.636	What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
10.368	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.081	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
8.122	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
6.871	How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025?	Continuous
6.857	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
6.681	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
6.596	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
6.119	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
5.953	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
5.948	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
5.686	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
5.187	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
5.187	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.187	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.187	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
5.157	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.550	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
4.358	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
3.926	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
3.862	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
3.617	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
3.582	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
3.363	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
3.345	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
2.920	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
2.807	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
2.743	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
2.651	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
2.608	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
2.592	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
2.491	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
2.428	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
2.424	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
2.420	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
2.242	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
1.348	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
1.224	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
0.950	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.870	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted)	Continuous
0.839	When will the order providing for Title 42 expulsions no longer be in effect in the United States?	Continuous
0.589	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.422	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
0.259	When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine?	Continuous
0.108	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
0.078	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.314	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-1.834	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-2.113	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
-2.388	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-4.470	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
-4.487	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
-5.257	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-5.465	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-6.904	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-6.969	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-7.173	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-10.497	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-10.737	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-10.909	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-12.019	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-15.641	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-18.093	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-18.278	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-21.128	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-23.270	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-27.429	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-27.489	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-27.696	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023)	Continuous
-27.721	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-27.742	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
-29.553	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-30.047	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-30.516	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-31.116	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-34.310	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
-40.981	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-42.318	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-44.355	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
-49.932	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-50.544	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
-55.193	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-56.039	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-58.051	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-61.016	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-61.744	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
-69.017	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-69.226	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-77.564	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-80.036	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-110.324	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-115.209	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-116.440	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-130.745	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-132.498	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
-137.364	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-144.432	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-188.622	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous