| 94.431 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 91.641 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 90.609 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 90.149 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 89.599 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 87.836 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.351 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 86.715 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.383 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 82.225 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 80.319 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 77.477 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 74.920 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 74.920 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 70.733 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 65.992 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 65.314 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 64.409 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 63.505 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.415 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 62.572 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 62.001 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 61.946 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 61.703 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 60.992 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 60.784 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 60.266 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.480 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.708 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 57.214 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 56.905 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 56.581 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 56.013 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 55.994 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 55.659 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 55.079 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 53.000 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 52.969 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 52.403 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 52.338 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.108 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 51.872 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 51.359 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 51.222 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 50.773 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 50.573 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 50.199 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.153 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 49.501 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 49.500 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 48.997 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 48.547 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 48.533 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.236 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 48.009 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 47.735 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.659 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.345 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.848 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.817 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.238 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.156 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 46.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 45.956 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 45.818 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 45.688 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 45.497 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 44.983 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 44.882 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 44.489 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 44.313 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 44.268 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 44.206 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.088 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 43.696 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 43.677 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 43.402 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.007 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 42.618 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 42.361 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 42.145 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 42.010 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 41.906 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 41.648 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 41.318 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 40.840 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 40.703 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 40.703 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 40.615 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 40.431 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 40.253 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 40.252 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 39.925 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 39.727 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 39.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 39.445 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 39.445 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 38.857 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 38.857 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 38.261 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 38.118 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 37.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 37.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 37.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 37.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 37.061 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 36.996 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.986 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 36.953 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 36.953 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 36.469 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 36.172 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 36.157 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 36.157 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 35.615 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 35.238 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.223 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 35.086 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 35.084 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 35.084 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 35.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 34.871 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 34.769 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 34.757 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.702 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 34.020 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 33.963 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 33.830 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 33.204 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.188 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.156 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 33.111 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 33.101 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 33.055 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 33.055 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 33.020 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 32.969 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 32.828 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 32.828 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 32.188 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 31.684 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 31.624 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 31.159 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 30.910 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 30.876 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 30.854 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 30.697 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 30.592 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 30.256 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 29.775 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 29.733 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 29.645 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 29.632 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 29.207 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 29.207 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 29.206 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 29.205 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 28.739 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 28.441 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 28.341 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 28.296 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 28.286 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 27.695 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 27.601 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 27.525 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 27.417 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 27.404 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 26.870 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 26.755 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 26.566 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 26.155 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 26.011 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 25.838 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.509 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.501 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 25.439 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 25.398 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 25.129 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 25.126 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 24.296 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.178 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 24.007 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 24.007 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 23.854 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 23.751 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 23.280 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 23.040 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 22.990 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 22.825 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 21.670 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.377 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.028 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 20.904 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 20.218 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.542 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 19.310 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 18.640 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.639 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 18.177 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.823 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 17.221 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.799 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 16.766 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.558 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 16.399 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 15.984 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 15.180 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 14.861 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 13.424 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 13.424 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 13.336 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 12.044 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 11.753 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.887 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 10.738 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 9.773 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 9.744 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 9.700 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 9.580 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 9.087 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 8.518 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 8.492 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 8.207 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 8.086 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 7.767 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 7.689 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 7.501 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 7.250 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 7.240 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 7.045 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| 6.166 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 6.130 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 5.579 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 5.524 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 4.995 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.905 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 4.586 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 4.566 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.403 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 4.362 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 4.224 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 3.686 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 3.645 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 3.531 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 3.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 3.287 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 3.287 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 3.277 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 3.129 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 2.300 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 2.076 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.976 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.734 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 0.864 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.510 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.058 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 0.016 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| - | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| - | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -0.623 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -1.081 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -1.310 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.683 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.693 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -2.729 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| -3.686 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -5.284 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -6.892 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -7.305 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -7.965 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| -8.595 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| -8.793 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -8.880 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -11.292 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -12.729 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -13.115 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -14.946 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -16.051 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -16.154 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -20.465 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| -25.336 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -26.346 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -27.388 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -27.690 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -30.260 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -31.429 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -31.800 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -32.077 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -34.680 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -35.551 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -35.668 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -40.457 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -42.013 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -42.173 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -45.528 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -49.493 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -53.304 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -56.815 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -77.552 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -155.353 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |