H559

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.8k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
133.157	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
131.127	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
123.751	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
112.243	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
103.634	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
99.537	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
99.391	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
98.744	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.616	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.459	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
96.876	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
96.538	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
96.479	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.443	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
95.655	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
95.418	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
95.316	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
94.316	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
93.859	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
93.736	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
93.674	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
93.029	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
92.710	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
91.296	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
91.065	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
90.550	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
89.822	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
89.796	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
89.774	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
88.116	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
88.042	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
87.823	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
87.351	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
86.673	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
86.472	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
85.981	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
85.943	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
85.619	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
85.409	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
85.381	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
85.313	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
84.833	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
84.464	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
84.156	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
83.831	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
83.734	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
83.734	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
83.712	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
83.563	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
83.528	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
83.430	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
82.019	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
81.791	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
81.496	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
80.787	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
80.206	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
80.174	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
80.089	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
80.063	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
79.977	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
79.972	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
79.534	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
77.631	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
76.679	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
76.448	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
76.103	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
75.762	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
75.756	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
75.737	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
75.039	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
74.452	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
74.423	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
73.499	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
73.367	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
72.864	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
72.599	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
71.866	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
71.375	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
71.346	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
71.250	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
70.257	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
69.661	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
69.087	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
69.026	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
68.958	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
68.257	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
68.019	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
67.597	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
67.584	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
67.369	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
66.573	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
66.523	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
65.908	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
65.730	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
65.598	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.004	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
64.904	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
64.786	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
64.678	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
64.648	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
64.164	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
64.154	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
64.029	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
63.812	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
63.733	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
63.644	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
63.010	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
62.907	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
62.697	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
62.662	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
62.471	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
62.249	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
61.800	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.752	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
61.325	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
60.053	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
59.477	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
59.400	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
59.363	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
58.707	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
58.340	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
57.596	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
57.316	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
57.193	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
57.094	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
56.906	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
56.508	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
56.340	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
56.315	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
56.175	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
55.912	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
55.787	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
55.532	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
54.810	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
54.382	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
54.279	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
54.107	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
54.046	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
53.928	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
53.856	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
53.650	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
53.332	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
53.293	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
52.896	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
52.150	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
51.263	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
51.142	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
50.668	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
49.371	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
47.935	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
47.592	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
47.260	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
46.772	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
46.653	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
46.591	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.405	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
45.348	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
44.684	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
44.656	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
44.648	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
44.478	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
44.408	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
43.558	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
42.907	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
42.664	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
42.522	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
42.358	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
41.555	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
41.176	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
41.000	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
40.220	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
40.100	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
40.091	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
38.811	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
37.330	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
37.007	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
36.740	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
36.266	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
36.009	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
35.311	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.543	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.160	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
34.024	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
33.805	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
33.758	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
33.294	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
32.484	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
32.304	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
31.836	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
31.544	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
31.362	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
30.730	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
30.541	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
30.448	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
28.827	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
28.527	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
26.792	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
26.574	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
26.465	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
26.055	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
25.719	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
25.430	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
25.415	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
25.373	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
25.063	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
24.888	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
24.110	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
23.722	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
23.170	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
23.088	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
22.915	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
22.654	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
22.406	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
22.305	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
22.036	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.812	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
20.871	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
20.797	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
19.846	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
18.882	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.848	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
17.742	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
16.587	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
15.446	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
15.268	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
15.239	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
15.036	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
14.605	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
11.680	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
11.263	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
9.945	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
9.608	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
9.378	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
9.077	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
8.228	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
7.031	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.552	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
4.949	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
4.691	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
4.252	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
4.238	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
3.595	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
3.415	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
2.454	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
1.979	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
1.447	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
1.051	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
1.023	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
1.010	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
0.730	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
0.623	When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union?	Continuous
0.164	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.387	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-2.992	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-7.901	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-8.698	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-9.576	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-9.620	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-10.723	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-13.301	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-13.457	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-14.691	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-14.985	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-15.019	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-17.702	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-19.366	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-20.631	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
-24.481	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-25.924	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-27.398	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
-31.353	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
-34.792	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-35.895	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-36.006	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-36.752	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-39.683	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-44.700	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-45.966	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-46.266	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-53.309	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-57.879	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-58.488	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-60.973	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-61.207	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-71.116	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-74.890	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
-77.157	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
-77.437	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-88.778	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-97.226	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-102.946	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-131.252	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-156.273	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
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