| 167.654 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.667 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 99.085 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.973 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.981 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.484 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 95.827 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.770 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 95.711 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.220 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 95.008 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.008 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 92.467 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 92.074 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 90.727 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 88.757 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 88.054 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 87.412 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.814 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 86.234 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.017 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 85.131 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 84.947 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 84.947 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 84.947 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 84.538 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 84.499 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 84.476 | What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 83.375 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.363 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.065 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 83.023 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 82.882 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.328 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 82.071 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 81.723 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 81.057 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 80.671 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 80.596 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 79.214 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 79.088 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 79.052 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 78.895 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 78.417 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.011 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.008 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.949 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 77.550 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 77.422 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 76.721 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 75.548 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 75.334 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.794 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 74.793 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 73.385 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 72.468 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 72.446 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 72.414 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 72.268 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.268 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.268 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 72.226 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.220 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 71.222 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.191 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 70.711 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 69.361 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 69.316 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.730 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.122 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.029 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 65.012 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 64.983 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.904 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 64.717 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.714 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 64.676 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 64.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 64.521 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 64.512 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 64.494 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 64.483 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 64.131 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 64.060 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.722 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 63.397 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 63.272 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.238 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 62.766 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 62.519 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 62.172 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 62.020 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 62.017 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 61.651 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 61.588 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 60.969 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.665 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 59.635 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 59.542 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 59.288 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 58.950 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.828 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.696 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 58.097 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 58.044 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 57.987 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 57.939 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 57.772 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 57.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 57.743 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 57.737 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 57.713 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 57.614 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 57.575 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 57.564 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 56.985 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 56.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 56.864 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 56.778 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 56.459 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 56.100 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 55.819 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 55.706 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 55.534 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.271 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 55.207 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 55.055 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 54.183 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.486 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 53.482 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 52.927 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.642 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 52.303 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.833 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 50.819 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 49.867 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 49.577 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 49.569 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 48.916 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.594 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.913 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 47.803 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 47.446 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.382 | How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 46.730 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.032 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 45.797 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.505 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 45.288 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.260 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 45.211 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 44.720 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 44.708 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 44.183 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.578 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 43.418 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 43.271 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.018 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 41.839 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 41.176 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 40.897 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 40.844 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.233 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.985 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
| 39.720 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 38.906 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 38.272 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 38.211 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 38.201 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.376 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 37.105 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 34.904 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.548 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.336 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.918 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 31.064 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 29.947 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 29.662 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 28.627 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens) | Continuous |
| 27.895 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.390 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 26.313 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 25.139 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 24.588 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.525 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 23.117 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.504 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.282 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.204 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 19.404 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 17.557 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 16.862 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 16.476 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 15.248 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.417 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 13.502 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.101 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.081 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.044 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.260 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.253 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.197 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.715 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 10.131 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 8.721 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 7.910 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 6.123 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 4.262 | What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 4.184 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 4.156 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 4.156 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 3.523 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 3.398 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 2.061 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 1.632 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 1.504 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 1.409 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.520 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.516 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.516 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.130 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.108 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 0.097 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 0.086 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 0.066 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.062 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.055 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.054 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.053 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.052 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.050 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.050 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 0.035 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 0.034 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.025 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.003 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.003 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -0.001 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -0.777 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -0.806 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -1.745 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -2.830 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -4.082 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -4.724 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| -5.106 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -5.549 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -6.873 | Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -8.443 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -11.027 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -15.170 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -17.255 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -17.395 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -19.040 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -20.570 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -21.516 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -22.442 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -28.228 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| -30.852 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -32.982 | How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context)) | Continuous |
| -38.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -89.013 | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| -93.603 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -94.912 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -100.185 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -107.908 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -123.771 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -142.771 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -152.809 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -163.628 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -225.985 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -278.634 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |