vakrasiak

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8121	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
150.746	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
147.156	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
134.746	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
132.872	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
115.916	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
115.539	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
106.436	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
104.030	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
103.751	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
100.824	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
94.501	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
93.344	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
92.512	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
91.355	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
88.695	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre)	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party)	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green)	Binary
88.695	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic)	Binary
86.089	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
84.367	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
83.340	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
83.340	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
83.340	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
83.340	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left)	Binary
80.762	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
80.040	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke)	Binary
80.040	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne)	Binary
80.040	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP)	Binary
80.038	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
79.823	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
78.840	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
78.840	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
78.840	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
78.101	What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025)	Continuous
77.502	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
77.263	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
76.522	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
76.320	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
76.320	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
76.320	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
74.080	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
73.198	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
73.198	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
73.198	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
73.198	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
73.198	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
72.965	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
72.959	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
72.489	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
72.312	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
71.776	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
71.762	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
71.733	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
71.314	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
71.314	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
71.235	How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
70.957	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
67.840	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
67.803	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
67.511	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
67.347	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
65.556	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
65.556	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
65.556	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
65.556	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
63.822	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.888	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
61.423	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
61.243	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
61.243	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
60.334	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
60.172	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
60.083	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
59.854	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
59.516	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
58.569	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
58.520	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
58.321	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD)	Binary
56.984	What will Meta’s yearly operating loss on Reality Labs be? (2025)	Continuous
56.358	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
55.756	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
55.281	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
54.941	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
54.812	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
53.587	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
52.812	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
52.647	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
52.096	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
51.128	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)	Binary
50.550	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
50.135	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
49.499	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
48.933	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
48.538	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
48.434	Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?	Binary
48.014	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
47.344	What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025)	Continuous
47.049	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
46.915	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
46.797	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
46.797	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
46.797	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
46.191	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
46.139	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
45.802	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
45.744	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
45.744	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
45.428	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
45.394	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
45.291	How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024?	Continuous
45.210	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
45.017	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
44.650	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
44.626	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
44.454	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
44.410	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
44.209	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
43.688	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
43.298	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
43.234	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
42.809	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
42.461	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
42.400	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
42.224	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
41.786	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
41.596	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
41.328	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
41.203	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
40.525	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
39.450	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
39.428	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
39.376	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
38.998	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
38.834	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
38.834	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
38.834	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
38.715	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
38.561	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
38.484	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
38.117	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
37.681	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
37.521	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
37.454	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
37.413	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
37.185	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
37.067	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
37.041	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
36.304	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2024)	Continuous
36.065	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
35.983	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
35.853	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
35.353	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
34.846	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
34.270	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
34.029	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
33.899	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
33.474	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
32.560	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
32.371	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
32.278	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
31.975	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
31.972	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
31.963	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
31.455	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
31.253	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
31.237	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
31.083	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
30.159	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
30.022	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
29.719	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.261	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
28.736	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
28.596	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
28.052	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
26.586	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
26.410	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.067	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
25.732	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
25.643	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
25.627	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
25.356	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
24.619	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.107	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
23.625	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
23.468	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
23.169	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
22.369	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
22.002	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
21.709	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.363	Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU)	Binary
21.043	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
21.043	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
20.921	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
20.899	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
19.638	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
18.711	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
18.146	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
17.999	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
17.851	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
17.494	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
17.082	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
17.002	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
16.829	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
16.360	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
15.851	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
15.152	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.970	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
14.397	How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023?	Continuous
14.047	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.891	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
13.617	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
13.570	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
13.487	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
13.487	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
13.401	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
13.341	Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?	Binary
13.053	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
12.491	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
12.454	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
12.375	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
12.375	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
12.375	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
11.098	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
11.042	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
10.930	When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?	Continuous
10.617	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
9.979	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
9.403	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
9.375	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
9.244	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
8.768	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
8.430	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
7.928	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
7.877	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
7.793	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
7.623	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
7.302	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
7.019	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
6.641	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
6.515	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
6.131	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
5.941	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
5.813	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
5.644	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
5.500	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
5.274	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
5.204	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.204	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.148	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
5.066	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
4.926	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
4.797	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
4.621	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.582	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
4.181	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.457	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
3.379	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
2.915	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
2.854	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
2.387	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
1.805	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
1.252	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
1.200	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
0.827	When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union?	Continuous
0.598	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.595	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
0.351	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
0.121	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
0.000	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
-	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
-0.234	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
-0.398	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
-0.849	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-2.017	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-2.799	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-3.091	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-3.789	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.926	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-6.390	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-6.502	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
-7.251	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.445	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-9.603	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
-12.535	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-12.678	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
-13.185	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-13.680	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Conservative)	Binary
-14.023	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
-15.416	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-16.601	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
-19.587	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-21.185	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-25.533	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
-27.690	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-28.974	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
-29.056	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-30.217	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-30.591	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-33.474	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
-34.688	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-39.630	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-46.026	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-46.312	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Labour)	Binary
-56.110	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-56.287	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-56.287	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-59.463	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-59.721	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
-64.917	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-66.933	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-73.532	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-80.140	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-90.362	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-95.733	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023)	Continuous
-105.711	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-108.962	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
-118.974	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-121.810	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
-125.018	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
-139.349	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-140.788	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-152.811	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-155.542	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-162.259	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-179.992	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-185.754	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-185.754	Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-185.754	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
-185.754	Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
-251.036	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-278.518	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary