| 148.419 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 141.268 | What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 134.356 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 132.884 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 129.676 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 123.051 | What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars? (2024) | Continuous |
| 98.348 | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 98.328 | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 96.892 | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 95.378 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 93.679 | What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 93.356 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 93.356 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 92.484 | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.457 | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 92.251 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.228 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 91.086 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 89.304 | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 87.719 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 85.946 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 85.549 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 84.923 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 84.786 | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| 84.623 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.540 | Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.340 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 83.720 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 82.711 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 82.625 | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 81.693 | What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 81.681 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 79.888 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 79.888 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 78.021 | What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)? | Continuous |
| 77.636 | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 75.889 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 75.841 | How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 75.517 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 75.080 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 74.984 | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 73.026 | What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 71.284 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 71.099 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.027 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 70.891 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 70.800 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 70.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 70.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 70.546 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 70.500 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 70.494 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 69.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 69.506 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 69.326 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 68.142 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 68.053 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 68.031 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 67.450 | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| 67.133 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.038 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 64.839 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 64.702 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.306 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 64.088 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 62.756 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 62.328 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 62.328 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 62.328 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 62.328 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 61.823 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.637 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 61.217 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 61.107 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 60.534 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 60.405 | What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 59.345 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 58.480 | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 58.450 | Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025? | Binary |
| 58.362 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.259 | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| 57.848 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 57.715 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.692 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 56.541 | How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 56.056 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.577 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 55.143 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 54.859 | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 53.659 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 53.527 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 53.115 | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| 53.097 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.930 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.806 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.456 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.187 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.925 | What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 48.390 | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 48.200 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 48.122 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 47.593 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 46.990 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 45.577 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 44.909 | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 44.136 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 44.103 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 44.083 | How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.329 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 43.329 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 43.264 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 43.229 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 43.050 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 43.050 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 43.017 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 43.005 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 42.964 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 42.671 | What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 42.005 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.451 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 41.334 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 41.323 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 41.139 | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 41.109 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 40.798 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 40.732 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 40.284 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 39.725 | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 39.528 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.349 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.290 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 39.206 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 38.864 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 38.596 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 38.023 | What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025) | Continuous |
| 37.648 | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 37.509 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 37.441 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 36.379 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 35.993 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.900 | What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.762 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 34.728 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 34.681 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 33.937 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 33.761 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.201 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 32.711 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 32.395 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.085 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.156 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 30.998 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 30.322 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 30.019 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 29.981 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 29.924 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.291 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 28.858 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 28.478 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 28.402 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 27.914 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.605 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.191 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| 25.486 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.620 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.763 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 23.557 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.715 | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.499 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.497 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 20.940 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 19.905 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 19.862 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.188 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.500 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.186 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 18.164 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 18.060 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.714 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 17.418 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.360 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.943 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 16.613 | What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 16.587 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 15.496 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.462 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.453 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 15.236 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 14.885 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 14.885 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 14.749 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.411 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 13.965 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 13.592 | Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 13.448 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 12.806 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 12.278 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 11.645 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 11.597 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 11.116 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 10.846 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 10.548 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.326 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 8.956 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.566 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 7.626 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 7.079 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.842 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 6.819 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |
| 6.795 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.768 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.184 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.127 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 5.382 | What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 5.318 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.285 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.242 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 5.234 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 5.215 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 4.464 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 4.126 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 3.668 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 3.558 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 3.304 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 3.162 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 2.792 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 2.335 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 1.959 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.768 | How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.603 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 1.451 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 1.415 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.303 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.042 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.936 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.889 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.774 | How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.582 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.507 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| 0.482 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| 0.463 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 0.238 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.096 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.024 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -0.178 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| -1.064 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -2.589 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -9.731 | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2025) | Continuous |
| -11.993 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -12.904 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| -15.338 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -16.368 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -18.771 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| -18.877 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -22.438 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| -24.516 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -26.478 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -27.230 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -27.519 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -28.040 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -34.585 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| -38.590 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| -44.251 | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| -44.667 | What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -52.602 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -59.160 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| -61.516 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -61.686 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -62.765 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| -62.959 | What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -67.667 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -74.996 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -88.409 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -95.465 | Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | Binary |
| -101.748 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -109.538 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -110.647 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -125.420 | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| -164.108 | How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025? | Continuous |