Langley

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6203	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.670	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
98.127	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
96.852	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
95.775	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
95.406	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
94.582	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
93.951	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
93.759	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
93.161	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
91.205	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
90.734	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
89.495	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
89.495	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
89.494	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
89.490	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
89.073	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
87.883	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
86.938	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
86.683	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
86.301	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
85.372	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
85.092	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
84.711	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
84.680	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
84.049	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
83.961	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
83.331	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
83.330	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
82.336	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
81.374	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
79.257	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
77.487	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
76.935	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
76.362	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
76.272	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
75.882	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
75.845	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
75.523	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
75.209	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
73.639	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
73.547	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
72.990	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
72.979	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
71.851	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
71.583	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
70.974	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
70.895	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
70.549	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
70.392	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
70.350	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
70.151	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
68.724	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
68.619	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
66.561	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
66.546	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
65.460	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
64.895	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
64.716	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
64.356	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
63.354	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
63.267	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
63.251	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
63.169	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
63.083	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
61.404	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
60.608	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
60.321	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
60.121	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
59.960	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
59.705	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
59.476	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
58.530	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
58.180	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
57.908	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
57.548	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
57.286	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
57.169	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
56.804	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
56.444	Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?	Binary
56.108	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
55.902	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
55.847	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
55.728	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
55.565	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
55.481	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
54.930	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
54.927	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
54.770	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
54.287	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
53.967	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
53.797	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.484	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
53.481	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
53.385	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
52.830	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
51.648	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
51.640	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
51.613	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
50.968	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
50.694	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
50.685	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
50.274	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
50.238	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
49.716	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
49.643	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
49.008	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
48.550	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
48.303	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
48.299	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
47.496	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
47.085	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
45.688	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
45.661	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
45.286	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
45.109	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
44.188	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
44.169	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
44.136	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
44.070	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
43.631	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
43.314	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
43.218	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
43.084	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
42.600	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
42.323	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
41.709	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
41.677	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
41.615	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
41.261	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
41.158	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
41.032	Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?	Binary
40.992	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
40.739	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
40.684	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
40.489	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
40.429	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
40.416	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
40.231	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
40.014	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
39.932	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
39.468	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
39.276	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
39.213	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
39.050	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
38.946	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
38.887	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
38.321	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
38.232	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
37.963	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
37.963	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
37.937	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
37.715	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
37.347	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
36.915	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
36.375	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
36.164	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
35.925	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
35.760	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
35.657	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
35.599	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
35.499	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
34.995	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
34.827	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
34.544	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
34.541	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
34.498	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
34.288	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
33.969	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
33.773	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
33.534	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
33.510	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
33.464	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
33.427	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
33.414	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
33.391	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
33.129	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
32.912	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
32.729	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
32.559	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
32.485	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
31.788	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
31.646	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
31.498	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
31.083	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
30.892	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
30.186	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
30.167	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
29.921	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
29.648	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
29.517	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
28.650	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
28.584	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
28.279	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
28.276	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
28.238	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
28.135	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
28.010	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
27.613	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
27.571	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
27.294	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
27.064	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
27.047	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
26.056	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
25.677	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
25.199	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
24.859	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
24.817	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
24.738	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
23.902	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
23.882	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
23.877	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
22.998	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
22.989	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
22.614	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
22.483	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
21.695	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
21.627	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
21.121	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
21.096	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
20.860	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
20.812	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
20.774	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
20.696	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
20.232	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
19.361	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
19.289	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
19.178	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
18.854	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
18.836	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
18.781	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
18.656	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
18.268	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
17.985	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
17.660	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
16.976	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
16.066	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
15.294	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
15.192	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
15.175	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
14.926	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
14.875	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
14.798	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
14.773	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
14.689	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
14.536	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
14.014	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)	Binary
13.659	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
13.469	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
13.240	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
12.813	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
12.717	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
12.599	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
12.469	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
11.684	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
11.145	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
11.120	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
10.931	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
10.876	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.710	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
9.816	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
9.506	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
9.343	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
9.170	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
9.058	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
7.725	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
7.431	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
7.209	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
5.866	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
5.704	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
5.610	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
4.995	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
4.075	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
3.731	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
3.581	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
1.136	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
-	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-0.069	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
-0.137	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.225	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
-0.283	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-5.592	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-5.908	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
-7.975	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-8.179	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-8.577	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-9.374	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-9.498	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-10.790	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-10.939	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
-12.459	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-12.797	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-14.832	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-16.833	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
-16.976	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-17.852	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-17.870	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-20.090	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-21.051	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-21.348	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-22.105	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
-24.858	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-26.887	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-27.457	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
-28.563	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
-28.568	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-28.666	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-36.599	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-40.145	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-41.462	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-46.273	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-54.675	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
-57.184	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-58.605	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-60.733	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-65.615	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-70.827	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-72.414	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
-75.413	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-78.606	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-84.494	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-85.309	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
-86.551	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)	Binary
-86.846	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-88.627	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-91.816	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-93.595	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-94.335	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-97.593	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-99.946	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-104.148	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-119.718	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-125.219	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-136.531	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-136.718	What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-146.861	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-152.699	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-178.857	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-186.047	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-195.144	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-196.949	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
-205.232	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-211.849	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-214.718	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-247.167	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-289.229	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-512.436	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-687.794	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary