PeterWildeford

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.566	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.994	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
71.990	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
65.521	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
61.734	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
54.805	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
52.793	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
52.125	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
48.527	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
45.999	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
45.400	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
43.131	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
40.257	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
36.662	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
36.253	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
34.865	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
34.864	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
33.686	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
32.148	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
32.091	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
32.026	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
31.757	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
31.394	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
29.122	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
28.842	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
28.832	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
28.617	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
28.233	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
26.181	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
25.480	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
24.322	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
21.952	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
21.944	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
21.748	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
21.706	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
21.675	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
21.481	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
20.750	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
20.655	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.512	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
20.316	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
20.133	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
19.168	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
18.241	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
18.143	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
17.146	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
17.032	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
16.934	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
16.820	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
16.807	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
16.322	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
16.288	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
15.897	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
15.640	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
15.589	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
15.584	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
15.213	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
14.825	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.583	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
13.624	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
13.209	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
13.029	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
12.802	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
11.806	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
11.767	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
11.546	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
11.323	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
10.968	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
10.661	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
10.332	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.257	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
10.126	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
9.645	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
9.472	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
9.457	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
9.096	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
8.826	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
8.787	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
8.780	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
8.621	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
8.425	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
8.378	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
8.130	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
7.726	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
7.598	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
7.411	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
7.392	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
7.361	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
7.353	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
7.342	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
6.710	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
6.683	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
6.581	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
6.336	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
6.292	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
6.106	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
5.394	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
5.005	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
4.905	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
4.551	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
4.457	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
4.349	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
4.072	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
4.042	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
3.962	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
3.948	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
3.424	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.127	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
2.994	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
2.949	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
2.641	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
2.573	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
2.193	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
2.072	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
1.894	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.736	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
1.708	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
1.708	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
1.543	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
1.440	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
1.389	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
1.273	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
1.232	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
1.185	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.061	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
1.039	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.853	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
0.818	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.766	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
0.749	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.604	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.488	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
0.464	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
0.410	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
0.184	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
0.144	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
0.074	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
-0.336	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-0.592	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-0.951	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.977	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-1.038	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-1.144	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
-1.452	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
-1.989	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-2.213	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
-2.244	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-2.764	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
-3.716	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-3.921	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
-4.182	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
-4.276	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
-5.766	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-5.972	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-6.019	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
-7.339	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
-7.440	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-8.170	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-8.405	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-8.573	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-9.051	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-9.127	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-10.393	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-10.433	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-10.475	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-11.834	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
-12.507	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
-12.855	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-12.865	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-18.341	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-19.626	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-21.011	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-22.614	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-26.239	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-28.843	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-28.932	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-31.403	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
-55.508	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-74.942	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-122.428	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous