Jgalt

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.84		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
187.827	97.9%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
153.760	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
123.899	99.6%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
99.236	99.2%	What will be the prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate in the United States in these years? (2025)	Continuous
94.374	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
73.420	92.1%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
71.595	99.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
70.207	100.0%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
68.002	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
63.984	76.4%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
63.265	99.8%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
62.520	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
60.364	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
57.049	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
56.896	99.4%	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
55.922	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
53.602	37.8%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley)	Continuous
45.156	46.6%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
45.011	98.2%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
42.798	100.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24)	Continuous
38.675	47.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK)	Continuous
34.794	63.9%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
34.023	97.5%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
33.801	99.9%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
32.820	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
32.646	99.9%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
31.021	100.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-24)	Continuous
30.296	99.8%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
29.979	99.8%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
28.997	93.4%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
28.805	100.0%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
28.521	99.9%	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
28.394	99.7%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024)	Continuous
26.771	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
25.629	79.8%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
24.305	100.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
24.111	99.0%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
23.621	51.1%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2022)	Continuous
22.829	100.0%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24)	Continuous
22.808	99.9%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
20.550	96.7%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
20.455	71.1%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
20.325	64.1%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
20.202	55.7%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
19.722	14.7%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Continuous
19.397	97.8%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
18.901	55.1%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
18.383	100.0%	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
17.693	63.9%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
16.533	96.8%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
16.390	53.3%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
15.796	63.9%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
15.184	89.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-24)	Continuous
15.012	99.4%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
14.693	99.2%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024)	Continuous
14.607	94.1%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
14.341	100.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
14.087	99.4%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
13.879	14.9%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
13.609	84.8%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
12.846	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
12.711	65.6%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
12.482	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
11.807	99.0%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
11.704	57.5%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
11.628	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
11.604	99.4%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.315	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
11.292	65.6%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.040	99.4%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
11.009	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
10.619	99.9%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-24)	Continuous
10.586	99.2%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
10.249	97.2%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
9.954	92.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
9.736	100.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
9.563	86.9%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24)	Continuous
9.387	99.4%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
8.911	92.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
8.553	100.0%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
8.234	99.4%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.959	99.7%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
7.537	93.4%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
7.405	17.3%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis)	Continuous
7.328	96.3%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
7.321	99.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
6.630	99.5%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
6.485	99.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
6.462	11.8%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
6.447	63.9%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
6.405	95.0%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
6.336	55.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
6.228	59.7%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
6.190	65.6%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
6.140	94.0%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
6.135	8.2%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
6.011	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
5.510	99.4%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024)	Continuous
5.204	99.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
4.636	12.3%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie)	Continuous
4.444	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.401	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.218	86.8%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.185	97.9%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
4.147	96.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.739	4.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
3.332	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.270	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
3.211	55.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
2.999	91.1%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
2.947	65.6%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
2.565	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
2.368	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
2.340	94.7%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
2.297	95.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.287	97.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.274	15.0%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson)	Continuous
2.160	99.9%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
1.905	21.0%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
1.653	96.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.639	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
1.623	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
1.608	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
1.568	99.5%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
1.511	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
1.482	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.394	4.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
1.386	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.375	63.9%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
1.370	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
1.341	23.4%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
1.295	81.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.289	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
1.285	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
1.229	7.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
1.159	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.140	99.5%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.045	99.4%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
0.982	97.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.931	98.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.882	5.4%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
0.846	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.831	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.747	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.670	96.6%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
0.661	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.648	1.5%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.646	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.626	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.561	18.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.506	85.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.502	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
0.454	26.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.447	6.9%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
0.438	85.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.430	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.398	95.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.366	95.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.365	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
0.310	26.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.209	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
0.204	22.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.185	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
0.165	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
0.153	7.3%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
0.118	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
0.113	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
0.090	7.7%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
0.052	67.2%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
0.043	25.0%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
0.024	0.1%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
-0.020	1.5%	Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House?	Binary
-0.032	7.6%	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
-0.180	4.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.416	4.9%	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
-0.505	83.5%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-24)	Continuous
-0.563	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
-0.577	52.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
-0.603	17.1%	Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.692	49.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
-0.704	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-0.719	94.1%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
-0.948	99.6%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024)	Continuous
-0.951	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
-1.177	96.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
-1.186	6.6%	What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?	Continuous
-1.352	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
-1.827	57.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
-2.289	25.8%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-2.334	67.3%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24)	Continuous
-2.409	96.1%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024)	Continuous
-2.620	81.9%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-2.683	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
-2.994	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
-3.033	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
-3.114	55.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
-3.135	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-3.161	38.9%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
-3.330	90.5%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-3.375	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
-3.432	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
-3.835	63.9%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-3.901	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
-4.000	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
-4.245	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
-5.083	99.5%	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024)	Continuous
-5.540	97.7%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
-5.640	74.6%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24)	Continuous
-5.809	72.5%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
-6.573	99.9%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024)	Continuous
-8.682	55.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
-9.390	100.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
-9.632	21.6%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
-11.640	80.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
-13.250	100.0%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
-15.921	71.4%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
-16.172	66.2%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-24)	Continuous
-16.478	99.7%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
-18.791	85.8%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-24)	Continuous
-19.504	65.6%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-20.053	99.6%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-20.914	87.2%	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
-25.353	55.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
-25.820	99.9%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024)	Continuous
-31.753	49.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
-41.257	99.4%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous