mattvdm

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.65	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
254.763	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
125.249	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
99.271	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
87.858	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
64.528	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
63.966	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
62.023	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
57.271	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
52.839	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
47.288	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
47.238	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
43.178	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
41.780	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
38.235	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
37.126	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
36.942	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
35.801	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
33.745	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
32.959	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
30.730	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
30.707	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
30.495	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
30.437	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
30.351	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
30.011	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
29.711	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
29.547	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
29.387	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
29.383	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
29.210	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
27.250	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
26.969	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
26.659	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
26.460	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
26.126	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
24.461	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
24.449	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
23.679	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
23.589	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
21.529	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
21.104	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
19.619	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
19.369	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
19.299	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
18.812	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
18.805	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
18.187	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
18.161	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
17.772	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
17.070	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
16.977	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.402	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
16.380	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
16.093	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
15.602	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
15.410	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
15.226	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
15.162	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
14.903	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
14.263	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.179	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
13.876	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
13.133	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
12.760	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
12.539	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
12.447	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
12.242	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
12.015	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
11.851	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
11.592	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
11.521	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
11.513	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
11.122	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
11.017	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
11.007	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
10.973	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
10.685	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
10.662	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
10.372	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
9.942	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
9.911	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
9.905	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
9.551	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
9.292	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
9.227	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
9.079	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
9.038	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
8.748	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
8.649	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
8.611	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
8.513	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
8.473	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
8.144	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
8.068	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
7.983	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
7.926	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
7.705	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
7.479	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
7.247	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
7.194	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.074	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
6.967	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
6.488	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
6.083	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
5.934	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
5.623	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
5.495	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
5.079	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
4.943	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
4.704	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
4.570	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
4.250	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
4.085	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
3.729	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
3.657	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
3.362	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
3.211	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
2.899	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
2.826	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
2.638	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
2.487	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
2.386	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
2.213	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
1.979	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
1.975	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
1.881	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
1.637	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
1.088	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.995	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
0.494	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
0.407	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
0.156	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
0.055	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
-0.456	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.997	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-1.145	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-1.487	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
-1.531	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
-1.777	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-2.164	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
-2.647	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
-2.685	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-3.612	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-3.865	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
-5.126	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-5.995	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-6.674	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-8.576	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
-9.139	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-9.435	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-9.533	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-9.985	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-10.286	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-13.258	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-13.634	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
-17.726	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-25.048	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-32.077	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-39.191	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
-46.065	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-62.120	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary