qassiov

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.57	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
61.204	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
44.860	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
44.808	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
41.382	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.087	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
38.964	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
37.265	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
33.694	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
32.992	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
32.362	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
32.282	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
31.093	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
30.844	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
29.324	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
26.295	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
22.290	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
22.285	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
21.071	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
19.994	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
18.827	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
17.953	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.591	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
17.545	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
17.498	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
16.143	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
15.660	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
14.387	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
14.094	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
14.024	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
13.976	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.820	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
13.520	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
13.044	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
10.972	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
10.589	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.272	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
10.021	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.625	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
9.447	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
9.164	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
9.021	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
8.880	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.867	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
7.982	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
7.844	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.568	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
7.565	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
7.205	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
7.189	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.668	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
5.866	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.836	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.690	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
5.627	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.366	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
5.236	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.514	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
4.197	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
4.082	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
3.570	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
3.493	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
3.132	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
3.000	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
2.927	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
2.543	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
2.203	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
2.181	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.103	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.095	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
1.920	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
1.677	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
1.568	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
1.523	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
1.197	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.804	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.465	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-0.073	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-0.214	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-2.294	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
-2.921	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-4.399	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
-5.016	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-5.195	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-9.737	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-10.149	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
-14.195	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-17.754	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-28.447	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-52.100	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary