Vang

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.21	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
263.750	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
159.049	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
68.195	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
64.287	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
59.508	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
47.708	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
43.023	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
42.779	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
42.772	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
42.212	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
41.901	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
41.405	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
41.349	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
40.615	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
39.630	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
39.302	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
37.528	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
37.278	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
37.122	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
36.200	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
35.486	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
35.216	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
35.108	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
34.616	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
34.573	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.661	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
33.650	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
33.616	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
33.427	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
32.343	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
31.863	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
31.117	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
29.108	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
28.522	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
28.460	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
27.916	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
26.980	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
25.465	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
23.867	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
23.081	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
22.714	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
22.362	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
22.012	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
22.011	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
21.957	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
21.855	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
21.537	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
21.382	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
21.326	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
20.733	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.590	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
20.357	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
19.963	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
19.699	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
19.579	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
19.546	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
19.096	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
18.831	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
18.541	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
18.047	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
17.825	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
17.656	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
17.552	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
17.339	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
17.310	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
16.948	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
16.569	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.402	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
16.399	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
16.205	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
16.054	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
16.046	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
15.940	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
15.738	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
15.636	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
15.541	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
14.956	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
14.905	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
14.746	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
14.721	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
14.712	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
14.192	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
14.118	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
13.723	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
13.633	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
13.325	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
13.260	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
13.142	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
12.962	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
12.524	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
12.435	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
12.353	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
12.270	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
11.735	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
11.706	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
11.596	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
11.468	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
11.432	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
11.371	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
11.262	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
11.207	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
11.120	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
11.029	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
10.982	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
10.853	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
10.074	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
9.668	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
9.594	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
9.588	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
9.306	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
9.255	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
9.219	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
9.145	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
9.124	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
9.055	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
9.031	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
8.784	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
8.763	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
8.571	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
8.526	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
8.445	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
8.415	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
8.386	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
8.366	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
8.219	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
8.208	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
8.038	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.872	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
7.851	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
7.820	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
7.775	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
7.623	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
7.398	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
7.324	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
7.137	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
6.756	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
6.582	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
6.422	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
6.310	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
6.286	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
6.204	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
6.183	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
6.182	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
6.123	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
5.666	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
5.644	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
5.477	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
5.446	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
5.429	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
5.362	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
5.172	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
5.074	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
5.024	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
4.700	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
4.508	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
4.395	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
4.088	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
4.084	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
3.944	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
3.864	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
3.790	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
3.607	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
3.535	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
3.511	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
3.449	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.302	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
3.282	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
2.632	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.616	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
2.579	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
2.475	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
2.455	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
2.118	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
1.736	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
1.666	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
1.573	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
1.122	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.066	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
0.822	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
0.282	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
0.177	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
0.028	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
0.010	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.009	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
-0.744	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
-1.050	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-1.190	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-1.663	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-3.566	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-4.510	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-4.696	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-5.165	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-5.189	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
-6.218	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
-7.057	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-7.696	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
-9.488	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
-9.741	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
-9.953	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
-11.334	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-11.393	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-13.844	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-18.641	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-30.023	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-31.002	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-33.598	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
-35.675	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-107.972	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous