Hayes

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.089		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
81.053	96.1%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
71.843	99.7%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
61.659	99.6%	What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
60.016	100.0%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
57.342	99.8%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
52.892	99.7%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
50.197	99.8%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
47.118	99.6%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
45.551	99.7%	What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years? (2025)	Continuous
43.238	99.8%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
43.230	99.6%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
42.699	90.9%	What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
41.986	99.5%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
41.106	99.9%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
40.426	94.6%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
37.983	99.1%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
37.427	99.8%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
35.776	99.9%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
33.728	55.3%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
31.238	99.6%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
28.627	99.3%	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
28.090	99.6%	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
27.894	91.8%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
27.771	99.4%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
27.702	98.2%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
27.010	100.0%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
25.791	100.0%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
25.612	99.9%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
25.295	86.5%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
25.130	97.6%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
25.049	38.4%	When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?	Continuous
24.406	100.0%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
23.889	99.6%	What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
23.405	99.6%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
22.315	99.3%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
22.232	99.9%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.877	99.9%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
21.664	87.1%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
21.213	45.3%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
21.060	99.9%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
21.025	99.8%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.977	99.1%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.701	95.2%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
19.451	99.7%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
19.092	99.8%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
18.820	99.5%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
18.373	100.0%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
18.199	99.5%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
17.951	99.8%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
17.810	100.0%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
17.650	74.3%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
16.567	98.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
16.420	68.2%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
15.665	100.0%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
15.617	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
15.457	100.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
15.226	90.9%	What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
15.089	31.0%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
14.046	98.7%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.605	99.9%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
13.299	62.5%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
13.263	100.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
13.205	99.8%	Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?	Binary
13.028	99.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
11.566	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
11.280	97.6%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
10.840	99.9%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.721	99.4%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
10.122	41.5%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
9.889	84.0%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
9.809	99.9%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
9.590	100.0%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
9.508	100.0%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
9.454	99.3%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
9.413	100.0%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
9.316	36.1%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
9.225	99.5%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
8.755	99.8%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
8.563	99.1%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.540	99.8%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
8.518	62.5%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
8.411	99.3%	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2024)	Continuous
7.478	99.5%	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025)	Continuous
7.395	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
7.263	99.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.827	55.8%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
6.330	99.9%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
6.193	100.0%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
5.850	99.8%	How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025?	Continuous
5.824	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.748	99.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
5.216	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
5.137	82.0%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
5.004	60.2%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
4.933	11.4%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
4.922	99.5%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
4.854	99.7%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.793	85.4%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
4.562	99.9%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.557	38.4%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
4.530	100.0%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
4.484	100.0%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
3.894	99.3%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
3.881	99.8%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
3.464	88.8%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
3.335	99.0%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
3.145	97.4%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
3.111	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
2.951	99.8%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
2.824	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.710	99.3%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
2.676	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.658	83.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
2.591	91.0%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.581	100.0%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.572	17.1%	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
2.561	98.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
2.384	100.0%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.280	100.0%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
2.269	99.9%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
2.173	73.6%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.125	98.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.082	62.8%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
2.066	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.994	99.7%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
1.982	26.9%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
1.956	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.953	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.830	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.785	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.750	99.7%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.717	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
1.648	65.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.645	100.0%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
1.502	99.9%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
1.362	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.330	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
1.309	19.6%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
1.279	65.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.031	91.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.002	12.0%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
0.985	2.4%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.894	83.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.848	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.752	65.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.656	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.603	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.530	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.451	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.423	12.8%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
0.318	93.8%	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.185	100.0%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.146	100.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.056	1.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.039	95.4%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
0.033	99.9%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.284	67.7%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-0.486	93.5%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-0.648	95.5%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
-0.972	99.7%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
-1.177	99.5%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-1.286	98.2%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-1.398	100.0%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-1.711	98.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
-1.939	99.2%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
-3.676	100.0%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-4.317	100.0%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
-4.385	99.9%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-4.714	99.2%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
-4.965	99.8%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
-5.153	99.0%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
-5.640	99.9%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-6.168	100.0%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
-6.786	99.8%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
-7.023	95.9%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
-7.285	95.6%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-7.303	99.9%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
-8.490	66.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-8.778	91.3%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
-10.133	99.8%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
-12.057	20.2%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-12.903	100.0%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-13.418	100.0%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-14.463	97.5%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-16.604	79.6%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-17.180	99.7%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
-17.982	100.0%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-23.538	99.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-23.806	99.9%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-24.195	99.9%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-26.030	99.9%	How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?	Continuous
-30.108	47.1%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-31.461	100.0%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-34.938	99.9%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-35.688	99.9%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
-35.802	69.7%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-79.436	99.7%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-91.881	100.0%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous