citizen

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

14.4		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
118.410	99.2%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
96.888	69.2%	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
85.260	55.7%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
80.435	64.8%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
74.324	96.9%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
68.184	72.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
58.221	99.5%	What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024?	Continuous
57.338	99.8%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
57.099	96.5%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
55.789	74.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
54.409	92.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
53.982	41.9%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
53.536	33.6%	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
50.305	91.2%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
47.782	97.3%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
47.409	88.7%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
45.366	100.0%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
43.727	94.6%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
41.888	61.3%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
40.714	65.4%	When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)	Continuous
38.701	75.8%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
38.683	72.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
38.671	78.3%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
38.620	73.3%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
37.698	32.4%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
37.435	34.4%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
37.241	99.5%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
36.662	75.2%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
36.297	39.3%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
35.832	34.1%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
34.593	99.9%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
32.248	86.6%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
31.504	99.9%	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
31.399	73.8%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
31.366	67.9%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
30.954	58.0%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
30.878	90.3%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
29.972	49.1%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
29.304	85.0%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
29.171	99.1%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
28.631	95.0%	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
27.782	100.0%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
27.128	96.0%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.749	33.9%	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
25.921	99.8%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
25.655	92.4%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
25.414	100.0%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
25.170	100.0%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.906	31.8%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
23.395	49.2%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
23.182	79.7%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
22.849	75.2%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
22.716	63.6%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
22.460	41.6%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
22.170	52.8%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
21.970	84.2%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
21.499	90.3%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
21.387	86.6%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
21.333	73.9%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
21.112	76.8%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
21.002	11.6%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
20.981	55.8%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
20.502	97.5%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.176	95.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
20.094	67.9%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
19.889	55.6%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
19.822	24.4%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
19.804	61.8%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
19.767	55.8%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
19.644	84.5%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
19.477	100.0%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
19.232	55.8%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
18.561	38.6%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
18.308	41.1%	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
18.192	98.3%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
18.031	51.2%	Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?	Binary
17.793	96.6%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
17.792	61.2%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.774	68.3%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
17.593	54.4%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
17.401	82.6%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
16.801	63.4%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
15.882	52.8%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
15.867	90.3%	Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?	Binary
15.747	23.4%	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
15.259	98.7%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
15.232	89.3%	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
15.226	42.6%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
15.113	97.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
14.895	74.4%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
14.877	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
14.074	91.6%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.997	21.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
13.982	52.1%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
13.915	22.9%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
13.345	98.5%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.271	90.3%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
13.241	22.7%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
13.103	50.9%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
12.969	56.8%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.884	48.2%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
12.613	56.4%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
12.588	96.2%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
12.496	46.8%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
12.086	12.0%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
12.047	55.7%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
11.823	56.4%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
11.661	69.6%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.483	44.8%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
11.453	23.6%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
11.441	23.7%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
11.273	68.6%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
10.998	35.7%	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
10.979	49.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
10.901	20.7%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
10.718	92.8%	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
10.687	59.4%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
10.454	92.7%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
10.287	85.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
9.928	71.7%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
9.745	55.7%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
9.743	64.8%	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
9.602	20.6%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
9.446	75.8%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
9.416	58.2%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
9.183	65.4%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
9.175	77.1%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
9.126	42.0%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
9.125	99.2%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
9.002	78.7%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
8.841	58.3%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
8.804	65.1%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
8.797	43.0%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
8.755	50.7%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
8.690	50.6%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
8.463	14.8%	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
8.411	15.3%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
8.328	43.8%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
8.320	23.3%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
8.122	75.1%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
8.028	91.0%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.998	12.1%	How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?	Continuous
7.981	42.0%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
7.620	56.7%	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
7.486	44.0%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.390	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
7.279	99.6%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
7.038	42.7%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
6.903	49.5%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
6.871	51.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.793	41.6%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
6.734	76.5%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
6.670	25.7%	How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025?	Continuous
6.575	58.3%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
6.558	23.1%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
6.453	55.7%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
6.321	3.4%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
6.295	62.4%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
6.282	93.0%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
6.218	31.6%	How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023?	Continuous
6.171	80.6%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
6.104	64.6%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
6.063	31.8%	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
6.025	30.7%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
5.890	39.8%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
5.591	49.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.318	39.0%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
5.192	87.2%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
5.132	100.0%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
4.920	35.7%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.741	42.0%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
4.654	55.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.600	6.1%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
4.592	85.9%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
4.521	31.0%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.481	93.8%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
4.185	100.0%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
4.145	85.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
4.107	99.9%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
4.100	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
3.991	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.957	98.4%	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
3.794	16.6%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
3.678	43.3%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
3.617	41.3%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
3.570	46.2%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
3.558	29.2%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
3.551	30.6%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
3.522	87.2%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.346	7.3%	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
3.274	69.6%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.078	56.0%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
2.995	23.2%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
2.965	27.8%	What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
2.797	97.3%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
2.698	67.5%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
2.672	98.7%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
2.330	24.8%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
2.172	81.9%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
2.143	9.1%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
2.072	49.5%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
1.996	10.8%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.987	1.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
1.840	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.809	55.5%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
1.625	96.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.611	49.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.584	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
1.558	82.6%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
1.523	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
1.464	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
1.450	71.7%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.330	59.9%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
1.258	5.6%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
1.173	4.7%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
1.089	97.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.049	8.7%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
1.040	67.0%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.039	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.038	100.0%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.027	5.8%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
0.985	35.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
0.950	49.5%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.893	49.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.861	2.4%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
0.849	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.789	1.1%	When will the order providing for Title 42 expulsions no longer be in effect in the United States?	Continuous
0.771	89.1%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
0.696	100.0%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
0.565	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
0.516	12.8%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
0.514	46.5%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
0.473	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.466	46.5%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
0.408	3.6%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
0.377	1.0%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.346	2.5%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
0.298	48.9%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
0.293	46.5%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.260	2.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
0.226	2.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
0.222	0.3%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
0.197	17.1%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
0.180	2.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
0.161	1.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.160	51.2%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
0.147	2.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
0.142	16.6%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
0.123	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
0.117	0.9%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
0.082	0.1%	When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine?	Continuous
0.077	1.2%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
0.067	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
0.062	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
0.049	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
0.049	5.2%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
-0.005	2.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
-0.022	0.2%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
-0.231	56.0%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
-0.259	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
-0.268	0.8%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted)	Continuous
-0.268	72.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
-0.450	85.1%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-0.598	100.0%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-0.643	6.0%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
-0.677	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
-0.710	97.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
-1.274	27.7%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
-1.578	53.3%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
-1.613	1.4%	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
-1.662	95.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
-1.679	3.1%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-1.731	28.6%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-1.799	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
-1.850	98.0%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
-1.950	71.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-2.746	57.3%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
-2.853	76.2%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
-2.887	47.4%	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
-2.922	15.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
-2.961	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
-3.666	85.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
-3.995	49.3%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-4.023	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
-4.163	15.2%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
-4.317	89.0%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-4.507	44.7%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
-4.610	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
-4.825	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
-4.877	80.6%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.367	68.5%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-5.973	65.3%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
-6.164	85.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
-6.258	20.1%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-6.350	46.9%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-6.455	99.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-6.572	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-6.625	68.5%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-8.070	20.6%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-8.422	67.1%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
-8.580	51.5%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
-8.699	92.0%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
-9.024	98.1%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
-9.346	98.2%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-9.596	90.1%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
-9.604	72.4%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
-10.232	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
-10.400	72.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-11.685	89.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-12.417	94.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-12.962	85.1%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
-14.486	15.6%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-14.916	100.0%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-15.821	32.6%	What will the upper limit of the federal funds target range be on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
-18.948	99.3%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-19.311	34.6%	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-20.488	100.0%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-24.107	60.7%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-26.593	85.3%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
-26.882	78.6%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-28.959	78.1%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
-29.988	55.9%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-32.345	39.7%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-32.386	17.5%	What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023)	Continuous
-33.549	60.0%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-36.369	30.1%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-47.727	56.0%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-49.679	67.6%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-68.500	94.1%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-70.643	84.5%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-79.251	78.9%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
-82.341	97.9%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous