johnnycaffeine

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.09	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
60.613	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
58.570	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
49.325	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
44.915	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
36.362	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
35.894	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
34.153	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.761	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
29.016	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
28.040	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
27.655	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
20.228	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
20.018	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
17.906	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
17.491	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
17.031	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
15.972	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
15.920	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
15.691	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
15.233	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
14.512	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
14.014	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
13.523	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
13.477	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
12.959	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
12.782	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
12.169	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
11.957	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
11.337	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
11.319	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
10.600	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
9.305	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
9.255	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
9.025	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
8.805	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.769	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
8.711	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
8.710	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
8.557	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
8.211	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
8.202	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
7.973	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
7.755	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
7.653	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
7.603	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
7.030	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
6.995	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
6.952	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
6.932	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
6.875	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.820	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
6.467	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
6.403	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.323	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.273	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.235	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.873	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
5.734	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
5.400	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
5.300	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
5.206	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
5.116	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
5.042	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
5.019	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
4.857	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
4.662	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.587	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
4.521	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
4.498	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
4.382	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
4.284	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
4.046	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
3.559	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
3.508	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.385	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.298	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.252	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
3.197	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
3.038	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
2.789	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.779	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
2.706	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
2.377	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.195	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.145	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
1.985	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
1.929	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
1.815	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
1.809	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
1.760	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.737	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
1.592	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
1.584	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.558	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
1.396	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
1.363	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
1.322	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
1.192	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
1.179	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
1.137	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
1.077	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
1.054	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
1.039	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
1.036	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
1.034	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
1.027	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
1.015	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
0.818	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
0.681	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.676	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.660	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.632	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
0.506	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
0.494	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.412	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.384	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
0.363	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.311	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
0.277	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.266	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.261	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
0.247	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.243	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
0.235	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.212	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.203	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
0.201	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
0.195	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.188	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
0.172	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
0.133	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.101	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
0.093	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
0.085	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
0.077	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.071	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
0.068	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
0.066	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
0.063	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
0.050	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
0.046	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
0.041	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
0.032	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
0.029	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
0.029	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
0.028	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
0.023	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
0.015	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
0.014	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
0.005	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-0.000	Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.102	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
-0.177	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
-0.209	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
-0.812	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-0.831	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-1.078	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-1.296	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
-1.424	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
-1.537	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
-1.588	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-1.628	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-1.861	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-3.072	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.490	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-4.385	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
-5.812	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-7.327	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-8.064	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
-17.880	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-19.803	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-22.661	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
-91.829	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary