H559

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

10.01		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
68.405	93.8%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
68.280	56.9%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
58.465	85.1%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
56.477	99.8%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
54.344	90.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
53.276	80.4%	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
48.188	89.4%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
42.757	54.8%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
42.218	96.2%	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
39.300	99.9%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
38.926	76.7%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
35.869	98.0%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
31.568	74.4%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
30.729	34.3%	Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?	Binary
30.545	85.5%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
30.106	47.7%	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
29.334	95.7%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
29.281	86.5%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.091	86.7%	Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?	Binary
28.979	86.5%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
28.155	54.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
26.694	95.6%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
26.657	95.7%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
26.528	47.5%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
26.096	95.0%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
25.893	100.0%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
25.746	95.1%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
25.718	54.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
24.610	68.1%	When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?	Continuous
24.560	44.8%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
24.340	87.7%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
24.191	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
23.259	99.2%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
23.251	91.7%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
22.831	93.7%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
22.061	80.5%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
21.598	83.4%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
21.500	99.6%	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
21.353	88.9%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
20.319	86.5%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
20.304	77.4%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
19.800	78.6%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
19.397	50.6%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
19.095	88.0%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
18.378	88.7%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
18.160	98.6%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
18.141	100.0%	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
18.104	96.2%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
17.606	72.7%	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
17.494	53.7%	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
17.306	57.1%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
17.296	95.8%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
17.187	72.4%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
17.174	64.1%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
17.090	78.6%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
16.696	97.8%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
16.603	100.0%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
15.664	99.6%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
15.424	42.1%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
15.318	86.5%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
15.271	87.3%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
14.426	86.5%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
14.370	89.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
14.260	29.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
14.098	95.6%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
13.899	75.9%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
13.859	86.5%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.858	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
13.733	93.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
13.714	96.4%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
13.591	64.6%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
13.456	54.4%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
13.186	55.3%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
13.181	23.5%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
13.153	83.8%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.111	83.8%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
13.020	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
13.007	45.0%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
12.709	15.3%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
12.356	99.7%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
12.100	73.6%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
11.856	99.8%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
11.627	60.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
11.610	53.6%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
11.385	54.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
11.242	83.8%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.156	44.1%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
11.102	95.4%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
10.803	85.7%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
10.758	99.6%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
10.568	32.4%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
10.567	85.1%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.533	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
10.499	79.3%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
10.399	83.8%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.371	93.3%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
10.068	99.1%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
9.513	83.0%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
9.481	93.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
9.457	71.6%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
9.228	90.2%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
9.218	93.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
9.098	48.6%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
9.045	99.2%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
8.985	70.1%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
8.376	99.4%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
8.333	82.2%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
8.192	90.2%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
7.997	87.9%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
7.806	66.9%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
7.651	48.7%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
7.451	41.5%	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
7.414	58.4%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
7.235	99.7%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.094	49.0%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
7.054	75.4%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
7.050	37.8%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
7.027	88.2%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
6.983	34.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
6.927	53.6%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
6.841	96.3%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
6.833	60.8%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.764	86.5%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.586	93.7%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
6.464	94.1%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
6.430	64.6%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
6.400	100.0%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
6.269	99.3%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
6.266	80.0%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
6.265	84.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
6.200	88.9%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
6.077	99.8%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
6.070	61.3%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
6.069	16.7%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
5.953	82.8%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
5.816	45.8%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
5.747	26.3%	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
5.697	85.1%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.627	55.3%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
5.513	87.1%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.484	95.3%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
5.440	64.9%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
5.429	92.0%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
5.257	90.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.228	75.8%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
5.221	76.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
5.166	90.2%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
5.091	95.3%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
5.075	66.0%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
4.989	86.5%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.909	28.6%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
4.891	90.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.833	89.8%	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.667	62.3%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
4.623	71.7%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.500	95.9%	Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?	Binary
4.482	45.0%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
4.370	83.3%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.262	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.238	99.6%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
4.233	28.3%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
4.194	98.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
4.185	98.6%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
4.033	21.4%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
3.950	99.6%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
3.805	37.7%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
3.681	20.2%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
3.632	89.3%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
3.487	85.1%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
3.457	54.1%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
3.359	91.1%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.351	8.3%	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
3.290	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.075	64.6%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
3.012	90.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.933	58.5%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
2.828	99.7%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
2.823	99.5%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
2.767	9.6%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
2.720	88.5%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
2.648	65.1%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
2.632	90.3%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.482	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
2.417	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.349	9.2%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
2.299	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.192	65.0%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
2.104	98.3%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
2.047	98.7%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.964	3.0%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
1.946	90.7%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.922	71.2%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
1.916	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.893	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
1.791	96.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
1.743	25.9%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
1.716	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.705	9.5%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.705	85.1%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.632	8.7%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
1.549	26.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
1.501	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.272	93.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.267	90.8%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
1.226	85.1%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
1.203	88.9%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
1.184	84.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
1.111	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.051	39.5%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
1.009	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.967	23.2%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.918	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.896	85.7%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.884	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.871	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.848	95.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.794	16.5%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
0.787	96.3%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
0.785	100.0%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
0.766	97.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.741	34.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
0.716	34.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
0.639	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.625	1.4%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.607	88.9%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.525	17.0%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
0.524	34.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
0.498	4.8%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.461	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
0.453	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.426	55.5%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
0.383	3.9%	When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union?	Continuous
0.382	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.304	98.2%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
0.268	1.0%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
0.223	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.214	94.2%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
0.170	1.1%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
0.163	88.5%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
0.033	0.2%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.054	99.7%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-0.129	79.4%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
-0.228	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
-0.370	86.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-0.635	28.7%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-0.657	67.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
-0.824	89.3%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-0.983	66.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
-1.070	38.0%	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
-1.190	99.9%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
-1.213	89.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-1.373	96.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
-1.570	94.1%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
-2.035	98.2%	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-2.182	85.4%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-2.387	61.3%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-2.529	46.0%	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-2.596	93.9%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-2.649	60.1%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-3.167	98.2%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
-3.282	70.4%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-3.559	99.9%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-3.649	90.0%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
-3.862	99.7%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
-4.271	14.3%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-5.590	31.2%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-5.748	11.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-6.134	34.8%	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
-6.194	86.3%	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
-6.260	91.7%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-6.411	99.8%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024?	Continuous
-6.520	70.4%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-6.740	99.0%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-7.558	81.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-7.717	47.3%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
-8.056	99.9%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
-8.140	98.0%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-9.399	85.2%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-10.144	99.7%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-10.366	58.4%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-12.029	86.1%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-12.929	74.8%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-15.134	58.5%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-15.986	100.0%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
-16.132	95.9%	Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?	Binary
-16.503	95.3%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-17.168	96.1%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-21.893	91.1%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-23.483	99.8%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
-36.229	84.4%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-36.797	98.2%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-38.838	90.1%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
-43.883	99.3%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
-48.002	97.4%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous